Help with Probability of finishing certain spots...

[imcastleman]

I posted the following in the probability forum also:

It’s down to 3 players in a tournament and there are 10,000 chips in play. Player A has 4000, player B has 3500, player C has 2500 chips. Assuming all players are equal in skill level, what are the probabilities for each of them that they get 1st, 2nd, and 3rd? The numbers I used are wrong but I don’t know why. Here are the numbers I came up with:

Player A:
P(1st) = 40%, P(2nd) = 35%, P(3rd) = 25%

Player B:
P(1st) = 35%, P(2nd) = 40%, P(3rd) = 25%

Player C:
P(1st) = 25%, P(2nd) = 35%, P(3rd) = 40%.

It may be obvious how I came up with these numbers, but I do realize there is a flaw but don’t know how to come up with the correct numbers. I'm interested in how you come to the solution as opposed to the actual solution so please don't just give me the answer.

Thanks in advance for any help!!

[eastbay]

There is no single, definitive answer, only "models" that make certain guesses or assumptions about how it plays out.

Start here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...mp;Main=952778

eastbay