AK suited vs utg raise

[willie24]

The situation: 12 players left. 6 at your table. 9 places pay. (1st is $300, 4th is $100, 9th is $35.) you are in 8th place in terms of chips. you have 6,250. the chip leader has about 20,000. nobody has less than 2,800. blinds are: 400/800.

the hand: you are UTG+2 and have AK suited.
blinds are 400/800
utg raises 1600 to make it 2400 to go. (utg has 12,000 chips)
utg+1 folds.

-utg has been playing passively. he definitely hasnt been stealing blinds regularly. he seems like a pretty simple player. because of your own cards, and utg's simple approach, you don't suspect AA or KK, but are quite confident that he has a good hand.
-there have only been 2 players on this table besides yourself who have made a preflop raise in the past 20 min or so. utg is not one of them

what do you do?

[The4thFilm]

All in, duh.

[willie24]

come on, is there really no one who folds this? assuming all other players yet to act in the hand fold unless they have AA or KK (id guess this would happen about 97% of the time), he has to call about 3800 for about a 13700 pot. he has you covered. he has a good hand. hes going to call.
if you go allin i guess you have to hope he has AQ or worse. it's probably 80-85% that this is a coin flip. is going all-in really worth it?

[The4thFilm]

Of course! You're shortstacked and 9th place pays crap.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
come on, is there really no one who folds this? assuming all other players yet to act in the hand fold unless they have AA or KK (id guess this would happen about 97% of the time), he has to call about 3800 for about a 13700 pot. he has you covered. he has a good hand. hes going to call.
if you go allin i guess you have to hope he has AQ or worse. it's probably 80-85% that this is a coin flip. is going all-in really worth it?

[/ QUOTE ]
First, the likelihood of someone (including the utg limper) having AA or KK is reduced by the fact that you have one of the aces and one of the kings in your hand already.

Second, whether or not it is "worth it" to push depends on your priorities. Do you want to barely sneak into 9th place money, which is a pittance, or actually place highly? If it's the latter, sometimes you have to put your money in when you think you may be in a race.

And furthermore, you'd be surprised how often you'll catch AQ, KQ, or other hands that make you a 3:1 favorite (maybe I've just been playing on party too much). Sure you have no folding equity (unless he makes a braindead fold), but now is probably the best chance you'll get to double up before the blinds clobber you. Don't waste it.

[AceSquared]

All-in

[bigfishead]

Based STRICTLY on your read. If I am reading you correctly, easy fold.

However against many players you are way ahead in this situation. Normally, being this short handed You would pound this hand. Figuring to have a pretty good shot to have the best of it, maybe even taking the pot right there.

It is your thoughts on this player tho that brings to mind certain players that I will muck to in this spot. And I have been correct 100% of the time. My thoughts are strictly based on your opinions of this player. Not much thought on your hand, statistics, math, pot size, stacks, etc. None of that matters when you have a read you feel strongly about.

[willie]

all in for sure.

[fnurt]

Count me with the pushers.

You really think that a UTG raise means a pocket pair 80-85% of the time? Even from this player, I don't buy that. If you had TT you'd be like "oh he probably has overcards and it's a coinflip."

[WinBig]

I would push here. I noticed you said that only two other players at the table had raised preflop in the last 20 minutes. I guess if you are stealing plenty of blinds (I assume you are if you mentioned this) then maybe you could fold if you are absolutely sure UTG has AA or KK.

Having said that it is possible UTG was card cold and finally picked up a pair of 9's and wants to steal the blinds. Worst case scenario here is a coin flip in my opinion and if the goal is the big money then I push.