variance and standard deviation

[knightunner]

I've heard that the standard amount a good limit player makes is 1BB/ hour. What is the variance on this? I am wondering if I need to brush up on my understanding of the game since I have documented the (roughly) last 50 hrs of my playing and I am down 2.5 BB. Does this fall within the standard deviation of a good player? Or am I a losing player?

Also, could someone please explain the math behind this for me?

Thanks,
knight

[Iceman]

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I've heard that the standard amount a good limit player makes is 1BB/ hour.

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In low-limit games where the players are horrible, higher win rates are possible. Online, where the games are 2-3 times as fast as B&M games and the rake is lower, win rates as high as 5-6 BB/hr are possible in the softest full games.

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What is the variance on this?

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In limit holdem, usually 6-10 BB/hr depending on game conditions.

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I am wondering if I need to brush up on my understanding of the game since I have documented the (roughly) last 50 hrs of my playing and I am down 2.5 BB. Does this fall within the standard deviation of a good player? Or am I a losing player?

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Let's say your true win rate is 1 BB/hr with a SD of 6 BB/hr. Over 49 hours, you should be up 49 BB, but there's a 68% chance you're within 6*sqrt(49)=42 BB of your true result, and a 95% chance you're within 84 BB of your true result (2 standard deviations). It's certainly possible that you're a winning player on a losing streak. Do you think you should be beating the games you're playing in? Are you tending to lose to bad beats or to your own mistakes? Can you identify any major flaws in your own game? Can you spot weaknesses in many of your opponents' play? In a typical lineup, where do you rank compared to the others in your game? Those questions should help you decide if you've just been unlucky or if your game needs work.

[uuDevil]

I think your numbers are somewhat off. My SD~ 11 BB/hr. I think this is a pretty typical number. Also, a sustained winrate of 2 BB/hr playing even $.5/1 online would be very good. You often see larger numbers claimed but it usually turns out the sample size is very small. You need a very large number of hands to have good confidence in your win rate (~100K).

As far as the OP is concerned, it is entirely possible he is a winning player on a mediocre run of cards. The best way to judge your skill level would be to post some hands in one of the strategy forums and see what your peers think.

[Iceman]

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I think your numbers are somewhat off. My SD~ 11 BB/hr. I think this is a pretty typical number.

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Online your SD/hr will be higher because there are more hands per hour. I meant a SD of 6-10 BB/hr was typical for B&M play.