prob. board will pair after flop

[housenuts]

what is the probability the board will pair after the flop?

here's the example, i don't care about the bad beat because i know i got my money in at the right time, just wanna know the odds

i flop the nut flush, another guy flops top set. all the money gets in the pot. what are the chances the board will pair, or i guess he hits quads?

[housenuts]

ok, i'm really not complaining now. after a series of amazing hands, AKs, A9s, AK, and AA a few hands after that flurry I got a huge stack and ended up finishing 2nd after being down to 85 chips. the only salt in the wound was the guy that caught the full house on me earlier was the one that won.

nonetheless, i'm still curious to know the odds on this.

[Jman28]

My final four hands on an SnG tonight.. JJ,KK,AJo,AKo

No joke. Took first.

[Shawsy]

[ QUOTE ]
the guy that caught the full house on me earlier was the one that won.

nonetheless, i'm still curious to know the odds on this.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have a set on the flop, there are 7 cards out of 45 that pair the board (giving a full house or quads) on the turn, and 10 cards out of 44 that can do so on the river. It is easier to think of the probability of not pairing and subtracting that from 100%. I'm assuming heads-up and all in (i.e. cards flipped over) so there are 45 unknown cards to come on the turn, and 44 on the river.
Probability of not pairing on the turn = 38/45.
Probability of not pairing on the river = 34/44.
Probability of not pairing on either = .653
So the probability of the board pairing, given a set on the flop is .347 or about one in three. Not exactly bad beat territory if your opponent had the set on the flop.

[housenuts]

no, that's not so bad. that's higher odds than i would have expected.

[CASHIZ]

He's got 7 outs on the flop to pair the turn so he's 6-1 there. then after the turn his odds get better giving him a three to one shot, giving him some of the best odds he could get.