Planned check-raise, now what?

[SlyAK]

Prima 1/2 NL 200 max.

I am in the SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

2 limpers to the button who min-raises to $4. I make it $15. All fold to the button who calls. 2 to the flop for $36.

Button hasnt been at the table for long, and hasnt done anything crazy. I have seen him a couple times before, but dont have any notes. I assume that he doesnt have KK or AA here, he hasnt seemed to be the type of player to try to slowplay these pre-flop, although my experience with him has been limited.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I decide to blend it up a little bit and go for the check-raise instead of betting out.

Opponent bets $52 into the $36 pot. Ouch, now my check-raise will commit me to my hand.

What's my move?

Sly

[turkkito]

I think this is the kind of situation where I would fold my hand.

Sure he may be semibluffing with something like 98c or T9c (would he call with these preflop?) but he also might have a legitimate hand here. The combined chances of loosing about every time he has a good hand and loosing 33-50% when he's semibluffing make me want to fold here.

Your other option might be to just call and lead out if a non scary card comes on the turn.

[SirArthur]

What are the stack sizes? This is key in this hand.

If they are comparable, I fold.

If he is short stacked, I may call, however with no reads on this player the smart move is probably to fold.

His bet screams of a set, or a slow played A/A.

You are out of position and facing a huge bet, you don't want to go to the felt with tptk against an unknown, so the more I think about it, the more I like folding here.

[Skjonne]

Call. I think you'll split the pot unless turn and river are both clubs

[turkkito]

Risking your whole stack in the hopes of winning $18 is a horrible plan.

[fimbulwinter]

i always catch sh!t for saying this kind of thing, but i'll keep on saying it till i stop playing poker:
yeah, a call might be marginally +ev long run, or it might not, i dont know. without specific player reads, i can't say whether i think he's on a set or flush draw.

my actual point is this:
why bother? just fold and get your money in at a better time. you're either a huge dog, splitting the pot or he's still got 1/3 pot equity. let him make the play on you, if he's got the stones, and then let him bluff off his stack at a later time or let him think you're weak tight and get a little respect for your raises in the future.

from having read your posts and having seen you play, albeit briefly, i have no doubt you're killing the game. dont let him put you on tilt because he had AA, slowplayed it and hit his one "take my stack" out; let him win the little ones and you can settle for winning the pots when you're both all-in.

fim

of course none of this applies to a maniac/gus hansen wannabe. against one of those "this is how they play on WPT" types, i call every time.

[Skjonne]

Well I could be winning more than $18 right?

[bunky9590]

what are the stacks chief? If its around the maximum and I have no read where he's reasonable. I may just checkraise him all in. If I didn't hold the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] the decision is alot more fuzzy. He could have a set, he could have 2 pair. or he could be getting frisky with KQ, KJ or could have the same hand and you are on a freeroll.

I would need to know stack sizes before I answer objectively.

[Wayfare]

My read: min raise / call reraise from the button is not AK, it is probably a pocket pair that hit a set. You are drawing to runner runner because he thinks you have an overpair or AK and will check raise him. Ni fold, ni han.Too much money behind to get to the river with this hand unless you know he is LAG.

You have the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] making it less likely that he has a flush draw, but also making it possible that you could represent one. If you decided to call this bet and a club came off on the turn you could make a nice play at it, but I agree that folding is probably the right play without info on the player.

Bunky you would checkraise this guy all in? How many outs is your runner runner club draw ACTUALLY giving you? What can you put this dude on?

[SlyAK]

Stack sizes: I have $175 approximately at beginning of hand, villain has me covered.