I got 2 ROYAL FLUSHES on my birthday!!!! (9/18/82)

RYL · #1 09-20-2004, 03:37 PM

I would like to know what are the probability of this happening. This is my first time getting a royal flush and it happened 2 times on my birthday.

2004/09/18 - 13:27:58
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP3 ($41.20)
CO ($128.80)
Button ($45.55)
Hero ($92)
BB ($42.25)
UTG ($86.25)
UTG+1 ($73.05)
MP1 ($32.90)
MP2 ($80.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 2 folds, MP3 calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets $3, BB folds, UTG+1 raises to $6, MP3 folds, Button folds, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($17) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $16, UTG+1 raises to $32, Hero raises to $85, UTG+1 calls $34.05 (All-In).

River: ($168.05) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $168.05
Main Pot: $149.10, between Hero and UTG+1. > Pot won by Hero ($149.10).
Pot 2: $18.95, returned to Hero.

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kc Jc (straight flush, ace high).
UTG+1 has Js 6d (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $168.05. 

2004/09/18 - 20:30:00
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($73.90)
Button ($114.45)
SB ($97)
BB ($102.15)
UTG ($18.15)
UTG+1 ($58.75)
Hero ($111.05)
MP2 ($47.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, Hero calls $1, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($4) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $2, SB folds.

River: ($8) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $10, BB calls $8.

Final Pot: $28
Main Pot: $28, between BB and Hero. > Pot won by Hero ($28).

Results in white below: 
BB has 2c Ah (two pair, aces and jacks).
Hero has Tc Qc (straight flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $28.

shadow29 · #2 09-20-2004, 07:04 PM

raise the turn

fnord_too · #3 09-20-2004, 11:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is ok to slow play here with the nut flush draw to go with the nut straight.

goldcowboy · #4 09-21-2004, 07:30 AM

With this kind of luck going for you, I suggest you parlay your winnings into some serious cash by purchasing lottery tickets. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

RYL · #5 09-22-2004, 03:03 AM

?

pzhon · #6 09-22-2004, 03:56 AM

I'm sorry, but your sample size is too small. Please report back after a few hundred thousand birthdays.

Actually, you do need to specify how many hands you played, and the probability you would stay in to make a royal flush if it is possible. If the probability of one royal flush in the number of hands you played is p ~ #hands*P(RF in one hand), the probability of two royal flushes is about (p^2)/2 ~ (#hands choose 2)*P(RF)^2.

RYL · #7 09-22-2004, 11:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but your sample size is too small. Please report back after a few hundred thousand birthdays.

Actually, you do need to specify how many hands you played, and the probability you would stay in to make a royal flush if it is possible. If the probability of one royal flush in the number of hands you played is p ~ #hands*P(RF in one hand), the probability of two royal flushes is about (p^2)/2 ~ (#hands choose 2)*P(RF)^2.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what would the chances be after playing 7 million hands after 60 years?

sofere · #8 09-22-2004, 03:43 PM

Not only did you have 2 Royal Flushes in one day, you got to showdown both of them...I think that should be calculated in the odds.

I've had 2 in my life...one every one folded and i didn't get to show it...the other I had about $0.37 left in my bankroll at the time.

davehwm · #9 09-22-2004, 06:54 PM

My birthday is next week, close enough? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 max, 4 handed)

Button ($10.59)
SB ($15.69)
Hero ($53.72)
UTG ($73.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($1.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($1.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, Button folds, SB folds.

Final Pot: $4.50

MrHorace · #10 09-23-2004, 09:21 PM

I second gold cowboy's comments. The odds of a Royal Flush are 649,739 to 1 according to Ken Warren. As these are two independent events, the probability is approx. 1/649,379 * 1/649,379 or a very rare probability.

And, as mentioned, you got to show both of them down. Man, my birthday's Saturday, and I hope I have the Gods shining on me as you have.