Hand analysis - KQs

[JinX11]

Doing some homework on this morning's hands, figuring where I could have saved a bet or three throughout the sessions. Interested in comments on this hand - in particular, the flop raise and calling the turn bet with little more than a gutshot. At first, I thought my line was ok, then I thought it wasn't, now...I leave it to the 2+2 crowd.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (14.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 16.50 BB, between UTG and UTG+1.</font>

[Evan]

Fold the turn.

[bisonbison]

He can't fold the turn. He has the odds to spike a jack.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? He almost has odds to continue if you just give him 3 J's as outs. Add in any other discounted K's, Q's, and the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I'd say it's a call.

[dejableu]

I think your flop and turn plays were both correct. With two overcards and an inside straight draw on the flop, a raise from your position is standard.

On the turn, you have 12.5 big bets already in the pot and it's only costing you one. You have to assume 3-4 outs for the straight and at least 2 for your overcards (here I'm presuming top pair and second kicker win 1/3 of the time).

In terms of pot odds, you only needed 4 outs to justify a call, so even based on that your call was clearly correct. But taking implied odds into consideration, you were obviously folding if you missed, and raising if you hit a non-club J. So based on the 3 non-club Js alone, I think you can make this call.

[ErrantNight]

don't raise the flop. pot is too big, you're just guaranteeing you're giving yourself odds to call down elsewhere. K and Q may be solid outs (the J is... but perhaps only 3 of them)... but they might not be, and again, certainly K and Q of clubs aren't that hot. you have the odds to call, and if you improve on the turn you can bet/raise... and if a blank falls and it's unraised on the flop you STILL have close enough odds to draw to your 9 outs that a call isn't bad... and if someone else raises you can consider getting out.

i think you save yourself two sb's on the flop by not raising when you don't hit, and you can easily make those up on later streets with a raise when you do hit.

I don't see how raising has positive expectation. Are you hoping to fold other draws? if so... what draws are you afraid of that are really going to fold to your raise? and this can't be a value bet because you're likely not ahead and while you MIGHT improve to the best hand it's not like the odds are in your favor. your equity isn't great... why raise?

(and yes, i'm totally willing to respect/hear the reason for it... am i just missing something really important here?)

[mikeyvegas]

I play the hand the same.
Raising the flop is good 'cause it may clean up your overs and get you a free card.
The turn call is easy.

[JinX11]

[ QUOTE ]
don't raise the flop. pot is too big, you're just guaranteeing you're giving yourself odds to call down elsewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is precisely what I was wondering. If you go down the road of pot odds too far, you find yourself capping the flop with any potential draw, just to give yourself "odds" to draw out.

I was a bit worried this was going to be a dull post with an obvious answer. I'm glad it's not.


EDIT:
[ QUOTE ]
Are you hoping to fold other draws?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, half of me is hoping for a free card, naturally. The other half is pissed at the audacity of the guy to bet into me when I raised pre-flop. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[ErrantNight]

you've got two overcards that might be tainted outs... how is his equity strong enough to justify a raise here? am i missing something? 9 outs twice is really enough to justify a raise into this field on a fairly weak draw? even if you hit you may not be ahead... if you hit and go ahead there's still plenty of redraws for your opponents here... why raise?

[Jonny Melon]

You are questioning the flop raise because the 3-bet knocked you back on your heels, but it still is the correct play. If UTG+1 just called your flop raise, you wouldn't be second-guessing it right now. I think you played all the streets fine.

Jon