Gus Hansen tonight on PSI

[rjc199]

I'm setting the over/under on big pot Gus suckouts to be 2.5

The over/under on post-tournament-"Gus Hansen sucks"-playa-hatin'-2+2 posts is set at 1.5

The over/under on Barry Greenstein-"I'm better than Gus and he just got lucky in the shortterm"-posts is 1.

The over/under on Gus Hansen's finish is 3.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm setting the over/under on big pot Gus suckouts to be 2.5

The over/under on post-tournament-"Gus Hansen sucks"-playa-hatin'-2+2 posts is set at 1.5

The over/under on Barry Greenstein-"I'm better than Gus and he just got lucky in the shortterm"-posts is 1.

The over/under on Gus Hansen's finish is 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

The over/under on the total lack of relevance of this post: 100%

[durron597]

Big pot suckout #1: Gus raises to 16000 with KJo, Phil Ivey pushes his 70000 stack in with AQo, Gus calls and makes 2 pair on the turn to Phil's flopped pair of aces.

[daryn]

i really like gus' fold of the open end straight draw.

[durron597]

I don't see why Gus wants to make that call.... even if it was +CEV from the dead money in the pot, I have to believe it's -"$"EV, as far as the future tournaments are concerned. Howard can easily have A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] there, or an overpair; it's just too close for him to risk his third place stack vs. the second place stack.

However, I very much like T.J. Cloutier's comment "you got outdrawn, but it only lasted one card".

[Nottom]

Gus is in pretty good shape actually against AKs since if frees up his pair outs.

Twodimes seems to be down, so here are the stats from the cardplayer Poker Calculator for some possible Lederer Hands.

Against Ac3c:
Howard: 57.1
Gus: 42.9

Against AdKd:
Howard: 56.2%
Gus: 43.8%

Against AdAc:
HL: 52.7%
GH: 47.3%

Howard's actualy hand was about it gets for hands he might play that way, since I'm guessing he's not gonna push with a boat or quads there (in which case Gus still has about as many outs as he normally does when he puts all his money in the middle).

[durron597]

I still think it's a pretty bad call for $EV reasons, even if it's +CEV.

[ohgeetee]

The announcers said Gus was probably scared of AKs, but I don't think that was the case. I think he was more worried about 55 and drawing completely dead outside of the straight flush.

[ohgeetee]

I think he would push there to incite a call from gus. This has happened in past episodes, where the desperation push just makes it look like he is trying to buy the pot, so gus calls, sucks out, and wins.

[bobby rooney]

I agree, it would be tough for me to lay that one down. I don't put Howard on a three there in a raised pot, so it looks like you are the favorite. However, I think Howard's small initial bet put Gus on alert. He may have figured Howard for AKs or AQs in the suit on board, which kills a lot of his outs. The small bet might have alerted him that a 3 is possible as well. I guess there would even be a small chance of 55, but that's pretty remote.

All in all, I'm usually looking for a way to get all the chips in the pot with that big a draw, not how to get away from the hand, so it's a pretty tough laydown.