what do ya figure here?

[skp]

Party 15 game

Cutoff (new player) posts. I have never seen him before so I have no clue how he plays. The blinds are playing tight. I am to poster's right and open-raise with Ts9s. He calls. No one else does.

Flop: AsAc9d

Bet and call.

Turn: Ks

I checkcall.

River: Js

I check.

[James282]

I can't really believe you'll be good enough of the time to call a river bet. What hand calls that flop? Bets that turn? Flush got there, every possible overcard got there, you only beat 22-88. I think I like betting and folding to a raise on the turn better.
-James

[cero_z]

Hi James,
He has the flush.

skp,
There's no particular reason he should be full here, given his pre-flop cold-call, and he must at least call with any Ace. He probably will call with some 2-pair hands. When you factor in that he will most likely check those 2-pair hands behind you, and may bluff less since everything got there, I think it's an easy bet (and gladly call a raise).

[Robb]

Hi James,
I assume you didn't see skp has a flush.

skp, the flop raise is toward the bottom of my raising standards in this scenario but I like it.
EDIT: the PRE-flop raise

I like a river-check raise here. I put the CO on either having a hand or not. Either will probably bet the river but a bluff won't call a lead bet by you. Notice if he has a king the presence of the Jack on the river makes it more likely you hit a card with which you may call his river bet---thus making it slightly more likely the river won't get checked through.

If he 3-bets fold. Ha ha ok seriously. Call and expect to lose 48.17% of the time.

Regards,
Jamie

[Robb]

Hi cero,

IMO the river play question is - How likely is it for the average Party opponent to:
A) Check behind with a King? skp sure hasn't played his hand like he has an ace. A good player like skp may check the turn after pairing the King but the average PP opponent usually isn't aware of that. I think most opponents bet the river with a King after skp has checked. Runner-runner flush isn't that likely coupled with the fact skp checked the river.
B) Call a river bet with a 9? I doubt it-even on Party.

The tricky one is the weird opponent hand like J10. But not enough to factor in I believe.

Therefore I like a river check-raise here.

Regards,
Jamie

[Rick Nebiolo]

skp,

sort of off the main point of your post but does anyone think there is a case for an open call here btf with this middle strength implied odds type hand with a poster behind (that will usually call the raise anyway)?

not sure i'm making sense, as it is late and my brain is starting to shut down [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

~ rick

[skp]

I agree with everything you said.

Of course, I was trying for the river checkraise (as I was fairly certain that my opponent had either an Ace or a small pocket pair). It turned out I was wrong as he checked behind with Kc5c. My opponent played this hand poorly on the flop, perhaps even the turn, and definitely the river (he should have value bet his King). For that matter, his preflop coldcall is also shaky.

As for my play: preflop, turn and river are all debatable.

Preflop: While I understand what Rick is on about, I think that raising is best.

Flop: obvious bet

Turn: This is the most interesting street. The flop has no draws whatsoever. Ergo, I felt that he had an ace or a dinky little pocket pair which he did not feel strong enough about 3 betting preflop with. He might have also had a 9 but he wouldn't fold that if I bet and would bet it if I checked so there was no downside to my checkcalling.

By checking, I avoid getting raised by an Ace when I would have to call to try for the flush i.e. the "check when you have outs" principle applies here.

The danger with checking is where he has a hand like QJ and gets to draw for free (if he chooses not to bet). But it would be tough for QJ to call the flop.

Or, is that a proper call? In this spot, should a hand like QJ call a bet on a AA9 flop based on the advice in the shorthanded section of the "bible" where it says to disregard the top card on the flop. Here, with two aces on the flop, my opponent should know that there is now less of a chance that I have an Ace. Also, my LP raise could be with a wide range of hands and a Queen or jack could vault him into the lead even if I had a legit raising hand such as TT,99 etc. Besides, by merely calling on a drawless board, he mimics a slowplay which may well see me check the turn if I don't have an Ace (which is what happened here).

Anyway, I am not so clear as to my proper turn play because I have some uncertainty as to proper flop play by my opponent with a hand like Qj, Qt etc.

River: In retrospect, I suppose that my opponent may well have just chceked a hand like 55 or whatever. Perhaps, I should have bet to induce a curiosity call with those types of weak holdings.

[skp]

Openlimping is worth considering but I think that openraising is better (particularly where the blinds play tight).

Too lazy to give my rationale (besides, you know it better than I do anyway).

[James282]

Hey Robb - that's what I get for trying to play a buncha tables and post on this forum at the same time. You can stamp me a dumbass.
Anyways, yeah check-raise this river.
-James

[Ulysses]

Bet the river and call a raise. He usually either has a King or a smallish pair. You can count on a river bet from a lot of players, but when the board is that scary at the end, guys who just call pre-flop and on the flop are much more likely to check behind on the river with a lot of hands that they might call with. The times he has an Ace, you'll often get raised anyway - and you pay two bets instead of three the times he is full.