Should I Ever Make This Kind of Play Again?

[Poker Jon]

Hey All,

Stars $10 rebuy last night. Have been at the table for a while. Villain has approx 45k (near top stack), I have approx 20k (about average) - 525 enetred, 150 left. I am BB he is SB.

Just to give you some history, there has been talk at the table that guy/gal made the final table of the WSOP Main Event this year etc Seems like a solid player, not overly aggresive - he knows how to play and can lay hands down.

Anyway, I pick up Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB and all fold to the Villain in the SB who completes. (blinds 400/800 a50).

I check.

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Check, Check

Turn 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB bets T2000, I call

River 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB Bets T3000.

I think for a bit and then re-raise all in with my pair of tens. He calls almost immediately and flips over Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]for the second nut flush.

I know I played the hand horribly on all streets (yes I know I should have raised pre-flop and bet on the flop!).

My question though relates to my stone cold bluff re-raise on the river. I felt I had enough chips to damage his stack significantly. I 'thought' I smelt weakness in his half pot bet on the river and went with my instinct - i felt he could have just as easily held 6-J of hearts with this smallish bet.

I think if he/she has J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or lower then this could be a tough call for them, IMO.

What do you guys reckon? Should I being making this type of play at this stage with my size of stack?

Cheers in advance.

Jon

[TheFink]

No offence, but I think the play is unforgivably awful. You have enough of a hand to call and take your chances, and enough of a stack to fold and forget about the hand, yet you do your whole stack on it.

I don't think they put down a J-high flush - indeed they may be calling with worse with (a) a v comfortable stack and (b) in a SB / BB battle. But the point is that they would most probably not have bet with a low flush, hoping to check and hopefully call your bluff. In which case you can really only beat a total bluff, in which case you might as well just call anyway.

[willie]

definitely a pretty bad hand.

we've all had them, but i wouldn't do anything more than call in this position, you're praying the person has enough doubt to lay down a jack high flush, but what if he had simply checked an ace on the flop, there again you're behind.

the timing just doesn't seem right with the size of the bluff and your chip stack.

call, lose, and move on to the next hand with plenty of bullets for battle.

[fnord_too]

I really don't like this play. Lets look at the pros and cons of calling, folding, and pushing.

Calling:
Pros:
If your opponent is bluffing (quite possible), or two way betting a worse hand (e.g. a pair of 8s), you pick up a nice pot.
If you call and lose, you still have almost 20XBB to work with.
Cons:
You really can only beat a bluff.

Folding:
Pros:
You have more than 20XBB left.
This may encourage a bluff later on when you have a good hand.
Cons:
Hard to think of any. Maybe this player tries to run over you on future hands when scare cards hit? That's a pretty weak.
Well, the possibility you are folding the best hand is a con.

Pushing:
Pros:
In general you raise for only two reasons, to get an inferior hand to call or to get a better hand to fold. Clearly, pushing here is not for the first reason. Lets consider some of the better hands that might fold:
Ax, 2P, small flush.
If you do fold a better hand, you have picked up 8600TC you would not have if you folded, or 11600TC you would not have if you called and lost.
Cons:
If you get called, you are gone.
Busting out when you could have around 20BB is very bad.
You have showdown value, and beat most bluffs.
You are well covered, so the range of hands that the SB will call with may be larger than you think (even so all the hands he would call with beat you).


This is a toss up between a call and a fold. If you think your opponent would bluff here, call. If you don't think your opponent would bet without a heart, fold. I think I favor calling, since you are getting about 3-1 on the call and 3000 does not affect your chip position dramaticly.

I really do not like pushing here, it risks too much for too little return. You risk about 15k for about 12k. You need to cause a better hand to lay down far more often than 15/27 to make this correct, since if you loose you are out. The only time I could see this as being correct is the case where you know the sb would fold any hand without the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. This is very unlikely since the action to date does not suggest that you have the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[Poker Jon]

fnord,

I take all your points on board.

I personally think that a call is a bad option. I really think that I behind on about 85-90% of hands here with just a pair of tens.

I personally think I made a strong play (although it may have been foolish). I don't think my opponent would call here with 1) 1 pair 2) 2 pair 3) a set 4) or (most importantly) a LOW flush.

It was just unfortunate in my case that he had the second nuts. I just don';t think a call in this position is a viable option as I KNEW I was beat when the heart came up on the river, but I didn't know by how much!! I suppose I tried to buy the pot.

Another question then. If you are the villain in this case scenario and have been raised all in, would you call with

1) A pair
2) 2 pair
3) A set
4) A low flush 2-7 high
5) A higher flush 8-J

I think I would be inclined to fold nearly all of these hands in this situation?

How much of a hand do you need to call , in this situation??

Cheers

Jon