Amusing Hand: laying down a set of Queens in a big pot

[bobdibble]

I'll post the results later.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (18.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (16.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero folds, BB calls.

River: (25.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 29.75 BB

[Jaran]

Terrible fold, didn't your pattern mapper show the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] was going to fall on the river? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

-Jaran

[kenewbie]

Why did you lay this down? You have odds for the board to pair and then some.

k

[afk]

Yeah, don't lay this down. On the turn if someone's got the Ace or 9 of clubs then so be it, but you've got too many outs to a boat. You need to see the river here.

[MicroBob]

This is a funny hand.
But the others are correct, you have many outs to draw to a full-house. Plus a couple of outs for a possible split-pot amusingly enough.

I agree that if someone has the 9c or Ac then tough-noogies but you still need to call the turn.

If the board pairs and then the river betting gets raised and re-raised before it gets to you THEN I think you have an interesting decision.

[bobdibble]

I was pretty sure that someone had the ace of flushes, so even if I had pot odds to draw to the FH, I wasn't sure it would be good. Given the action, how likely is it that one of the villians has the ace of flushes? How much do I need to discount my FH outs because of this?

If I have to discount the FH outs too much, I may not actually have odds to call.

[MicroBob]

You have some pretty huge odds to draw to a full-house.

You would have to discount your FH outs a lot to warrant folding to just 2 bets here.


If it had bet, raised, re-raised and capped before it got to you then I think you can consider folding.

[btspider]

check-raising and 3-betting check-raises is pretty strong action on a 4 straight flush board with all but one of the favorite suited limping hands already on the board. In a smaller pot, I'd be getting ready to dump this. Here, you have so much overlay that I'd call but not like it.

Since the Ace came out, I'm assuming UTG+1 had the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I'd be very interested to see what these guys had to play the turn like this.

[MicroBob]

Yeah. I agree.
Allow me to qualify that I think the chances of the straight-flush here are VERY good.....just not good enough to warrant folding to 2-bets because there is enough of a chance that your full-house might be good.
Although, admittedly, the more I think about it the less completely clear-cut I think this decision is.....

I still think you need to call 2 more bets here though to see the river and it's not really THAT close, but I can see your justification for folding.

If he does hit his full-house, he could still wind-up getting caught in a raising war on the river with a hand that he can guess is not best.....but you can address that situation when it comes I think.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
...
I still think you need to call 2 more bets here though to see the river and it's not really THAT close, but I can see your justification for folding....


[/ QUOTE ]

BB checkraised and UTG-3bet.. If I called, I expected BB to cap. I was wrong about this, but I considered calling here equivalent to calling 3 cold.