Set over Set. I should have got away...

Unarmed · #1 08-27-2004, 09:13 AM

MP ~100 (Villain)
CO ~100 (Horrid Player)
Button ~100 (Hero)

Blinds 1-2
3 limpers to Villain who raises to 25. This overbet means AA/KK/AK. I play with this guy quite a bit an there is basically no chance this is a bluff. He's fairly tight, makes some odd bets (like this one) but generally solid.

I have 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and get ready to muck before CO calls. There's about $60 in the pot, I have $100 in front of me so I call, pretty sure I can stack Villain and perhaps pick up enough chips off CO to make this a reasonable call... first mistake?

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain checks?
CO Checks?
CO could have had anything PF so his check means nothing. Its Villain I'm worried about. Its a rainbow flop with no obvious straight draws except KQ. Why is he checking here? I reason that he could check KK out of fear, AA to trap, but AK would likely bet here no?

Anyway, that was the approach I took so I put him on either a trapping AA or KK 6 ways to make the latter, 3 to make the former given the A on the board. So I reason I'm in "OK" shape. Still I check...I want to see what he does next.

Turn is the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] completing the rainbow and giving K10 the straight, any K or 10 the gutshot.

Villain checks again?
CO checks.

Is he really going to let 2 opponents draw to their straight and bust him if he has AA? I reason no, and PUSH?!?!?!

Massive mistake I think. I don't really know what I was thinking... I just figured KK would call me down so why not.

Anyway, you know what happened. He showed AA. But how should I have played this? As I was pushing I thought, hey set over set cannot be avoided. But I really think this one could have.

Thanks for the help.

Wayfare · #2 08-27-2004, 09:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
MP ~100 (Villain)
CO ~100 (Horrid Player)
Button ~100 (Hero)

Blinds 1-2
3 limpers to Villain who raises to 25. This overbet means AA/KK/AK. I play with this guy quite a bit an there is basically no chance this is a bluff. He's fairly tight, makes some odd bets (like this one) but generally solid.

I have 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and get ready to muck before CO calls. There's about $60 in the pot, I have $100 in front of me so I call, pretty sure I can stack Villain and perhaps pick up enough chips off CO to make this a reasonable call... first mistake?"

How are you going to call 1/4 of your stack with a low pocket pair? You know the odds of hitting a set on the flop are very low compared to this, like 7.x to 1? If you are sure he has AA/KK/AK then you cannot be sure of any bets post-flop unless you flop a set or just want to toss money around.

End quote

I think that if you have such a solid read on this guy and he plays so bad, there is no reason to get in after he has shown so much p/f strength. I don't think he is terrible if he can get paid off with his AA after a 12x BB open raise even if you *know* he has a monster. Does that make sense?

Unarmed · #3 08-27-2004, 09:27 AM

Completely.
The PF call is pretty bad.
There was 60 in the pot already, if I stack Villain thats another 75, so 135, and CO is brutal so I figured after he calls off a quarter of his stack PF theres a good chace I can get his as well. If he had of just folded PF I would have quietly done the same.

Part of it is the fact that this was about my 25th hand and I hadn't played a single 1...even the blinds. So yeah, bad call.

Accepting that...
Or just assume stacks are 200 if you like. What kind of line do you take post flop?

Thanks.

Wayfare · #4 08-27-2004, 09:38 AM

According to the "5-10 rule" (call less than 5% but never more than 10% with a small pocket pair in NL, anything in the middle is read/player dependent) you can't even call if you have $200 behind. When the 5-10 rule stops coming into play you run into the difficulty of running into set-over-set. I generally don't mess with $25 bb raises preflop unless I am doing the raising.

If this guy will only raise three things preflop, and raise them that hard, you can easily beat his strategy due to his predictability. If he is this deliberate preflop he is probably not very create post-flop, and you should be able to get his money without only trying to hit sets.

Young Gun · #5 08-27-2004, 09:57 AM

I think that if u put him on a monster this is a terrible call preflop. U don t have enought chips to give u the implied odds u would need to call his raise. However if you both had about 350 or so then the call could work out especially for a rag flop if he thinks you re bluffing

Unarmed · #6 08-27-2004, 10:04 AM

Thanks Wayfare [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I realize the PF call is crap. I generally use 15% as my guideline and 5% for mid/low suited connectors when HU. If there's a chance I can triple up then I'll take slightly less. So basically I had a brain freeze and made a crap call PF. I'm not debating that.

I'm more interested in postflop advice... would alarm bells be going off in your head when Villain checks the flop? I almost checked this thing down to the river but the check on the turn with the straight draw out there changed my mind.

Wayfare · #7 08-27-2004, 10:08 AM

When you hit a set and the stacks are so deep, I go to the felt. If you think he will call a big lead on the flop, just bet it and push if raised.

There is no way to get away from this once you have hit the set. If you each had $1000 then yes, but calling that raise almost makes this play like a 5/10 game because the pot is so gigantic.

Just be glad you weren't $300 deep and had this situation. I think losing $75 after hitting set over set is a very cheap introduction to the discipline of horrendously bad spots. Just look at this guy

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...;fpart=#962512

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Unarmed · #8 08-27-2004, 10:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think that if u put him on a monster this is a terrible call preflop. U don t have enought chips to give u the implied odds u would need to call his raise. However if you both had about 350 or so then the call could work out especially for a rag flop if he thinks you re bluffing

[/ QUOTE ]

Guys... I know. Bad call PF. But I definitely don't need $350. I'm 7.5-1 to hit my set and given the massive raise by Villain I'm 99% sure I can stack him off. I think this call is fine with ~200 given CO's involvement.

Also, if I put him on a monster it makes the call better, not worse as it increases the chances that he won't be able to drop his hand.

hoc · #9 08-27-2004, 11:08 AM

your plan was to get co stack as well, so why not bet the flop or turn. i agree that your not getting away from this, but your not getting anyone stack either.

SpiderMnkE · #10 08-27-2004, 11:22 AM

Obviously you have been told a million times the pf call was bad.

I'll remind you again. 25% of your stack with 44? You know this raise means AA, KK, AK... you still call???

Look what happened... you flopped a set and still became pussified because you are afraid his big pair filled up.

Post flop: At this point you are trying to get everyone's money in the middle.

On the turn... you are beating KK and AK out of the hands you put him on. AA, QQ, and JJ are kicking your hiney.

All of this mess just compounds the problem that you committed so much of your stack pf basically KNOWING your opponents hand.

It also doesn't seem likely that if you flop a set you are going to get both of your opponents stacks. Unless the guy is truly as terrible as you describe.

You ask for post flop advice because you know pf was a mistake. Well... in this case the pf mistake is just so huge that it is the most important.

After that you flopped a set in a gigantoid pot... your only goal is to get it all in as far as I'm concerned.