Was My Turn and River Play Reasonable?

[charlie_t_jr]

Haven't been at the table long. No reads, other than the table was playing relatively tight.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (9.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Is this a reasonable line heads up?

[Brian]

Hi charlie,

I can't remember the last time at a low limit game that I saw someone bet the Turn and then fold to a raise. It just doesn't happen often enough to be profitable. You've got a ton of outs, especially against a hand like AK, but it just never works.

-Brian

[charlie_t_jr]

I didn't think he'd fold to my c/r, but hoping to improve or he fold to my river bet. (obviously [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

More profitable to check call, check fold river? I was thinking my c/r might give me a chance to win, if I missed the river.

[Lost Wages]

I agree with Brian. If you want to make a move then I think that a better line is just to come out betting on the turn.

Lost Wages

[dumb ox]

Wouldn't calling the river be a good plan, with second pair?

[W. Deranged]

I don't like the turn raise. The 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a fantastic card for you, giving you 15 definite outs. But, even if you count all the 9s and 10s as outs, you only have 21 outs, and are losing at this point to basically anything you could be up against (all pairs, all As, alls Ks, Qs, Js, etc...). So, no matter what, you are less than 50% to win this hand, in my opinion.

The question is, whether you can get your ~35% likelihood of winning the pot up by raising the turn and hoping for a fold either there or the river. My suspicion is simply no. I doubt your opponent will fold 15% of the time on the turn and the river combined.

So, I think this is a situation where it pays to be very boring. Check-call the turn. As for the river, I really like a check-call as well, particularly if you think there is any likelihood that your opponent would throw in another bet as a bluff. He's not folding a Q here, and you want to give him a chance to bluff AK or something comparable.

[charlie_t_jr]

Everyone makes very good points...I think I was suffering "being too fancy for my own good".

Thanks

MP2 shows A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi charlie,

I can't remember the last time at a low limit game that I saw someone bet the Turn and then fold to a raise. It just doesn't happen often enough to be profitable. You've got a ton of outs, especially against a hand like AK, but it just never works.

-Brian

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you ever fold to turn checkraises? I do. I crap my pants when I get checkraised on the turn.

[Brian]

Hi Beer,

Sure, I, and most of us, do. Do typical low limit players? Rarely. Once they've bet the Turn, I'd say 95% of the time they see a showdown.

-Brian