Win % at Showdown

[sprmario]

I'm evaluating myself using pokertracker and my sample size is still small (about 7k hands) but I think that maybe I'm laying down too many winning hands. I have a went to showdow % when seeing the flop of about 30% and a Win % at showdown of 61%.

I'm wondering what are good benchmarks for those 2 in full ring games. I did a search and didn't really find anything. Thanks.

[Wahoo91]

Try here.

I have seen winning players with just under 50%. Actually mine is currently 49.89%. Probably not optimal, its an area I am working on.

I am very agressive, and often bet down to the river with unmade big cards that include an Ace (AK, AQ, AJ) that I raised pre-flop if there are only one or two callers.

I get a lot of folds on the river in my games, but sometimes they call and beat me with one-pair, usually middle or TPNK.

[Baseballa19]

Maybe I'm wrong, but doesn't a high percentage of showdown wins mean you're playing it well?

[sprmario]

Yes but I may be laying down a lot of +EV hands that aren't obviously +EV to me. Think of it this way. If you only play the nuts to the river then you'll have 100% showdown win %, but you'll lose money overall because you are folding way too many winning hands that aren't quite the nuts. If you see every hand down to the river you might win 10% and obviously lose a ton of money. for any given playing style there has to be a maximum showdown % where you see all the +EV hands to the river and drop all the -EV hands before then. I bet you can say w/ almost absolute certainty that if your % is over 70 or under 40 you are seeing way too few hands to the end and way too many to the end respectively.

I saw astroglides numbers on 3/6 and he was at 39.27% of going to showdown when seeing the flop and 48.3% winning at the showdown. I was wondering if my numbers which are significantly different are way off. I am playing .5/1 and 1/2 and am 4 tabling so Im' playing very basic ABC poker.

[Wahoo91]

If there are 3 others in the showdown , and you win 50% of the time you will make a lot of money.

If there are 20 BB in the pot and it costs you one to go to showdown, if you won 50% of these pots you will make a lot of money.

There are a lot of factors to consider when looking at the W$SD figure. I have thought that over 60% is way to high for loose low limit games that will include the factors I mention above. Over 60% might be the right number for very tight tables.

I am shooting to get in the 52-54% range.

[dogmeat]

Your win % at showdown has a lot to do with your VP$IP number. Obviously if you play a lot of hands, you will drag more pots and your number at showdown will be higher.

FWIW, my numbers last time I checked on PT were 17.75% VP$IP and W$ASD was 54.5%

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[h_ven]

My VP$IP is 40.70% and I've won 55.48% at the showdown over 9K hands at the 1/2(6 max)

I'm making 4.67 BB/100, what stakes are you playing

[Wahoo91]

My VP$IP is 40.70% and I've won 55.48% at the showdown over 9K hands

I find the combination of these two statistics very hard to believe over that many hands.

[Rudbaeck]

[ QUOTE ]
Your win % at showdown has a lot to do with your VP$IP number. Obviously if you play a lot of hands, you will drag more pots and your number at showdown will be higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing more marginal hands to the river isn't likely to increase the % won...

If someone has a win % over 60% I'd start to wonder if perhaps they fold too much? It's definitely time to look at the relation between win % of flops seen and win % at showdown. (There should be a good correlation between these two numbers.)

[dogmeat]

I may be off base here, but if you play 10% of all hands, and take your best to showdown, your W$ASD should be over 50%. Now lets suppose you play 20% of all hands and again take only the best to showdown. Do you win more than 50%, or less? I guess I don't know.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]