What sort of variance can I realistically expect playing SSH?

[stigmata]

Hi,

I have now been playing poker around 2 weeks ;-) I deposited $50 into PartyPoker and have been practising the theory at small stakes.

I am not a financial risk-taker, so I made a pact with myself that if I lost my $50, I would give up poker. Essentially that $50 represents my foray into the game – the earnings from it will be re-invested into the game. And if I ever go bust from that initial investment, my relationship with the game will end. Otherwise, I might end up throwing good money after bad, and we all know where that might lead....

Anyway, everything went very well initially. I played tight, and aggressive when called upon. I made a reasonably consistent profit. But suddenly, I went on a massive losing streak - nearly $200 in a day. At small stakes.

Perhaps I was on-tilt, although I honestly don’t think my game plan altered that much. It seemed to be endless bad-beat after bad-beat. I saw so many gut-busted draws - I was beginning to seriously question my own (limited) knowledge of the game.

I even went down to potentially my last ever game of Poker. I was all-in, with my last $6 resting on a JTs. Lady luck shined brightly, and my straight came on the river. Since then, I have again been making a reasonably consistent profit.

Anyway, the point of this story is – how much variance can I expect? Or did I perhaps go on-tilt, for my first time, without knowing it? I was not expecting swings that were quite this wild. Is this usual?

James

[TwoShedsJackson]

You don't mention what limit you're playing or whether it's lmit or no limit, but a downswing of 150BB is quite possible on a really bad run.

[stigmata]

Playing the smallest stakes possible on PartPoker - $0.5-1 and $1-$2

So I guess this could count as a really bad run with a bit of tilt thrown in? Or perhaps i'm a bit crap ;-)

[Webster]

$200 playing .5/1 is a very very bad day. I've been playing constantely for over a year (20 hours a week) and have never lose 200 Big Bets and ANY point.

However I did come close over a 8 day span once.

It sounds like you got into a bad streak that was probebly helped by some tilting. You never know it when you ARE tilting.

Here is my theory - you were doing great and winning, while you were winning you started to play "outside the box" with some plays that you should not be doing, AND WINNING. All of a sudden those slightly loose plays were not working.

Tha above is VERY VERY common for new players. Happened to me more then once. I win, get fancy, win more and all of a sudden BAM the bottom falls out.

Just relax, tighten WAY up until things turn. ONLY play when you flop a hand, no drawing hands until your confidence comes back.

[stigmata]

Sounds like good advice. I have been playing again and everything seems hunk dory now ;-)

I do believe I had some very bad luck, and yes you are probably right that I was perhaps being a little too ambitious with drawing hands etc. Hopefully I learnt a lesson.

I think you are right about tightening up till the confidence comes back, something I did not do.

[dhk42]

[ QUOTE ]

Just relax, tighten WAY up until things turn.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, absolutely.

[ QUOTE ]

... no drawing hands until your confidence comes back.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with this though. A lot of your profit in loose games comes from draws. You can fold weak iffy draws if you want (e.g. weak overcards) but you MUST NOT fold strong draws (e.g. flush draws) in medium to large pots for one bet.

David

[Fiery Jack]

Playing $0.5/$1 at Party I always find variance pretty high. I typically come to the table with the $25 standard amount and play a couple of hundred hands.

Looking back sometimes I doubled or even trebled up the $25.
Sometimes the $25 just evaporated. And it can happen in back-to-back sessions.

Recently I decided if I find myself down by half the bring in, I will consider switching tables. But sometimes I won't; the deciding factor is : If the tightest players have been winning the money, I switch; because I reckon they plan on keeping it.

[AncientPC]

[ QUOTE ]
$200 playing .5/1 is a very very bad day. I've been playing constantely for over a year (20 hours a week) and have never lose 200 Big Bets and ANY point.

However I did come close over a 8 day span once.

It sounds like you got into a bad streak that was probebly helped by some tilting. You never know it when you ARE tilting.

Here is my theory - you were doing great and winning, while you were winning you started to play "outside the box" with some plays that you should not be doing, AND WINNING. All of a sudden those slightly loose plays were not working.

Tha above is VERY VERY common for new players. Happened to me more then once. I win, get fancy, win more and all of a sudden BAM the bottom falls out.

Just relax, tighten WAY up until things turn. ONLY play when you flop a hand, no drawing hands until your confidence comes back.

[/ QUOTE ]

That happens to me sometimes, when you look at your stack relative to others.

I too just got started and this past weekend I went up $180 after maybe 1k hands at NL 25, but then lost $240. I also started with a small deposit ($100) and worked my way up, but I was just playing on tilt played horribly.

I took a few days off from poker and went back to my bread and butter-PP .5/1 to work on my game and grind it out.

[Webster]

[ QUOTE ]

... no drawing hands until your confidence comes back.


[/ QUOTE ]

What I meant was perhaps there were to many WEAK drawing hands. Flushs and so forth are of course plays, the ones to watch out for are playingthe hands that MIGHT turned into to drawing hands. When a new player goes on tilt I think they see ONE more cards hoping to GET a drawing hand.

You know - like seeing 1 extra card to get 4 cards to a flush.

Poker is a tough game to beat and every BB that is wasted comes back to kill ya in the long run. It might see like only 1 BB but when we are talking about 4BB/100 as good, that 3 BB leak every hour adds up.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

I have now been playing poker around 2 weeks ;-) I deposited $50 into PartyPoker and have been practising the theory at small stakes.

I am not a financial risk-taker, so I made a pact with myself that if I lost my $50, I would give up poker.
...
It seemed to be endless bad-beat after bad-beat. I saw so many gut-busted draws - I was beginning to seriously question my own (limited) knowledge of the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

After 2 weeks, you question your knowledge of the game? Good.

If you are a winning player at higher stakes, you may need a bankroll of 300 BB to have only a small chance (5%) of losing it all at some point. A bankroll of 50 BB would mean a 60+% chance (.05^(50/300)) of going bankrupt. At 0.50-1, the players are so bad that you need slightly less, despite the higher variance, but your 50 BB would leave a high risk of ruin even for an established winner.

In case you are a losing player, you may win in the short run, but you will lose any bankroll given enough time. Most poker players are losers, particularly in their first 2 weeks.

If you want to buy a lot more poker experience for your money, play for microstakes at Ultimate Bet, Poker Stars, Pacific Poker, or other sites that let you player for as little as $0.01-$0.02. Many players have built up bankrolls of thousands of dollars starting from micro-limits, picking up a solid understanding of the game along the way.