Lower variance games?

[cbloom]

I mainly play hold'em, and make good money, but the high variance is wreaking havoc on my sanity. Is there a common game that's lower variance? (eg. where the good players can more consistently win, even if it's smaller pots). It seems like Omaha for Hi is actually even higher variance, but maybe Hi/Lo is lower variance. It also seems Stud is a lower variance game, mainly just because with 3 hole cards you can be more sure that you're well ahead of people who play any hole. Has anyone done study of this?

[dogmeat]

IMHO, a solid, winning NLHE player will experience the lowest variance, followed closely by a solid, winning limit HE player. 7-stud, and even more so, 7-stud/8 is going to have much more variance. I would imagine most of the better players that post here will tell you they win 75% of their sessioins. This is very low variance! The weaker you are (at any game) the higher your variance will be.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Iceman]

NL/PL holdem, limit Omaha-8, PL Omaha-8, and limit stud-8 are generally lower variance than limit holdem, although either form of Omaha-8 will be high variance when there's a lot of preflop raising.

Limit stud is sometimes higher variance than limit holdem, sometimes lower. It depends mostly on the ante structure of the stud game and whether the holdem game is loose or aggressive.

Omaha high is a high variance game, whether played limit or pot-limit, and multitable tournaments in any form of poker are very high variance.

[carniplant]

[ QUOTE ]
and limit stud-8 are generally lower variance than limit holdem,
.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think stud/8 as lower variance than LHE? I've played hundreds over LHE hours and maybe ~ 60 stud/8 hours and i've found stud/8 to have much more variance than LHE, getting monsters cracked in stud/8 like (23)45 scooped by a loose players 88's up seemed to happen more often they also cost a lot more. Since i haven't played that much stud/8 maybe i missed something...

[Under Control]

I agree with Nl/PL HE having the lowest variance.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi cbloom:

Changing the subject slightly, from the tone of your post I suspect that the extremely high variance that you're experiencing may be representative of deficiencies in your game. Specifically, the better you can read hands the lower your variance should be.

Also, you may not be doing enough to stop other players from drawing out. That is if choosing what seems to be the low variance play allows someone else to occasionally stay in and beat you, you may have actually increased your long term fluctuations.

Just some food for thought.

Best wishes,
Mason

[mmcd]

Stud 8 has lowest varience by far if played right. Omaha 8 is 2nd.

[Tharpab]

[ QUOTE ]
IMHO, a solid, winning NLHE player will experience the lowest variance

[/ QUOTE ]
Could you elaborate on this?

[dogmeat]

Games like 7-stud allow players to improve their own hands, not the hands of other players, one hand does not depend on the other. A game like Hold-em, with community cards, causes a player to improve their hand with cards another player will also receive. It is therefore tougher to improve your hand and not help somebody else. This is easily seen with a hand like: JT and QQ

Flop comes T98 - if you make two pair, the QQ makes a straight, so you are down to only drawing at just two outs - the tens to win. If the flop is a rainbow, you are a huge underdog here. (JT is a misplayed hand, IMHO - because people constantly get trapped with big cards on the flop, drawing at a straight that often is only a split when they do make it)

Limit allows players to get good odds at many times to draw to long-shots (correctly) to beat you. Although you will win in the long run if you are a winning player, the long run may be looooong indeed.

What no-limit (and pot limit too, but to a slightly lesser extent) allows is for you to protect your hands by betting enough to reduce those odds the remaining players get, and if you play well, you reduce their odds on draws to a point where they should fold. They won't always, but your edge will be strong. Because of this, your variance is smaller at NL. I would bet half my bankroll right now that NLHE, played by a strong player, produces the smallest variance when compared to stud, draw and limit HE.

Dogmeat

[Annie Duke]

Hi--

The split games are in general lower variance. This is because good players are most often in freeroll situations where they have half the pot locked up. Stud hi/lo with no qualifier is the most low variance game, followed by Omaha 8 or better or Stud 8 better. The 8 or better aspect adds more variance because it reduces the freeroll opportunites.

Stud is higher variance than hold'em for two reasons: 1) One hand is never as big a favorite over another as it is in hold'em--for example AA vs a smaller pair in hold'em is over 4 to 1 while in stud it is only about 2 to 1. 2) There is an extra betting round. Also the ante structure in stud often demands looser play. And the fact that it is usually played 8 handed instead of 10 handed often requires looser play.

Hope that answers your question.

Annie