KK on the bubble

[37offsuit]

8 players left in a $50 MTT, started with only 50 players or so. Top 6 pay, with 6th being $150. First is around $1K. Blinds T2000/4000. I was one of the three small stacks trying to manage my way into the money, but just managed to triple up and am sitting at T17K now in fourth place. The two smallest stacks are T4600 and T2400 so I can pretty easily wait them out.

It comes to my BB and as I'm looking down at KK, UTG goes all in with about T20K.

It's folded around to me and I start trying to figure out all the angles. If I call and win, I'll be second in chips with three very short stacks. If I fold, I'm down to T11K after I pay the small blind. The small stacks will need to go all in to get through their blinds. The T4600 could double up, throw away his small blinds and then wait me out as he could then fold his next BB and still have 1200 in chips left before the blinds got through me again, where I'd have to make a move. That's a lot of what if, though.

Anyway, my read on the UTG player was that he was a bit maniacal. I had see him swing from near out, to chip leader, to near out, to big stack, to moderate stack and back up to big stack again, and he had just lost a hand recently where he was the aggressor on a bluff. I had sat with him for a lot of the tournament.

I called. If there was only one player left that needed to go broke, maybe I'd have layed it down for the pretty good chance of making the money and then try to move up aggressively.

Anyone lay this down? I'm pretty sure I call every time unless the chip situation is much more drastic, say I'm second in chips and the player pushing is a maniac that has me covered and I think I can beat him without the risk here.

Not to be results oriented, but the results:

<font color="white"> UTG had 99 and of course, caught a 9 on the turn to take me out.</font>

[Roman]

the whole fact that you are posting this means you are results orientated... if you called and won, I don't think I would be reading this post right now. A win here from a 'maniacal player' puts you in a great position to win it here...

[ZootMurph]

Do you want 6th, or 1st? If you just want to get into the money... fold. No complications there.

But if you want to win, you can't get a better opportunity. I would guess he is trying to steal blinds since it is bubble time, and you JUST got off the bubble, he probably thinks you'll be happy just making the money and will fold anything. The problem is that, if you are against aces or the maniac gets lucky, you get nothing.

Since you have the 2nd best hand in Hold'em, and you are on a semi-rush (just tripling up), you really should play the hand.

FWIW, I wouldn't hesitate to call allin here.

[Rick Diesel]

dumb post, easy call.

[37offsuit]

I don't think you're getting my point. I was wondering where the tournament EV is givin this set of circumstances. My goal is to make as much money as possible, period.

[37offsuit]

So what calculation do you base this on, EV wise?

[37offsuit]

Just curious, why would my semi-rush have anything to do with this particular hand? I would understand if I was in a position to take the lead or if anyone was left still to act, but those options are gone.

It's a pure numbers question in my mind, my chances of not limping into the money if I fold, limping into the money if I fold, limping into the money and then improving if I fold vs all the same if I call and win or call and lose.

As I said, I'm pretty sure I almost always call except in a much more extreme situation, I just want to make sure that this is +EV tournament wise over the long run.

I find myself in this situation from time to time, most of the time winning the hand, every so often losing it either against AA or by a worse hand catching up.

[Tosh]

This call is ridiculously easy, it deserves no discussion whatsoever.

[ZootMurph]

In the long run, it is +EV to call.

Simply, KK is a premium hand. If you want to run this situation out 100 times... how many times will your opponent have AA? How many times will he have an underpair? How many times will he draw out on you? After figuring that, how many times will that extra 17k he gives you on this hand take you all the way home for the $1k prize?

Point is this: If you win 75% of the time here (KK vs 1 opponent will win 82.4% of the time, as per the chart at gocee.com, so you will make it further into the money 82% of the time, than just folding into the money. And, frequently, the two smaller stacks will either get lucky to double up and put you on the bubble, or get a good hand, win, and put you on the bubble.

Now, if you fold around and get into 6th, or maybe 5th, you get a small amount. If you play this hand and win, which is over 80% of the time, you'll be either the chip leader or in the top three in chips (you didn't give specs on the rest of the rest of the stacks).

So, the calculation would be something like:
Call: 20% of the time you get $0. 20% of the time, you finish in the bottom 3. 60% of the time you finish in the top 3. (Again, can't give more exact information as we don't have all the chip stacks, but I'm sure you can do the exact calculations).

Fold: 5% of the time, the small stacks get lucky and you end up in 7th or 8th, and get $0. 75% of the time, you make 5th or 6th, folding your way into the money. 20% of the time you get lucky and make it into the top 4.

+EV to call, as you'll make money more often folding, but less on average, whereas you'll make money less often, but more on average calling.

[fnurt]

You could go an entire tournament without seeing a double-up opportunity this good. Next case!