Tough decision with 20 players left in Stars $22 NLHE

Rick Diesel · #1 08-11-2004, 10:07 AM

Stars $22 Multi NLHE last night. Started with 639, down to 20, everyone is in the money. At this point, 19+20 get $70, 10-18 get $140, 9th gets $200, up to top three over $1,000, with 1st at $3,195. My goal is to win the tournament, I do not play to just move up to a higher pay level.

Blinds are 2,000/4,000, with a 200 ante. I have 32,500, which is 10th out of 20, but 2nd at my table.

I am on the button with 99. UTG and UTG+1 fold. Next guy moves all-in for about 20,000. Folds to me, what is your play? SB and BB behind me are both very short, and appear to be playing to get to the next pay rung, so I am fairly sure they will fold, and even if they call I will still make money on the hand if I beat the original raiser.

Assume you have no read on the raiser, as he was moved to my table a short time ago, and at this point of the tournament it is basically all-in preflop or fold, so I have not seen him show down many hands.

Thoughts and results to follow.

Thanks,
Rick Diesel

Cleveland Guy · #2 08-11-2004, 10:21 AM

If your goal is to win - I think I might call here. It's probably 2 overs you against, because if it's all in or fold, I'm thinking with a monster he would try and slow play to see if anyone else pushed all in first.

You've got more than your money back already and your trying to win. I think at worst your in a coin flip - and if you win are up around 60K in chips - which should help you get to the final table easily. You'd also be in a chip dominant position at your table.

If you lose - still have 12k - while not much, still enough to double up and get back into it.

ron dogg · #3 08-11-2004, 11:02 AM

I think its a clear fold, even if you are trying to win. The person who went all in is not THAT short and he is in relativly early position, basically you're praying him to have AK or AQ in this spot. If he only had 10k i'd probably make the call. What tips the balance here in my eyes is the blinds are tight and you are 2nd in chips at the table. There is ample time to run it over to some degree. And get those chips by raiding blinds. Move in with 99 don't call with it.

R-

davidross · #4 08-11-2004, 11:52 AM

I fold this, TT and maybe JJ at this point. I hate calling with the middle pairs, you're praying for a coin flip. If his stack was less than half of mine maybe I call. On the other hand if I'm first in I push with this hamd.

durron597 · #5 08-11-2004, 11:59 AM

I think this comes down to the math. He pushed in for 20000 chips, plus the blinds and antes make 8000 more chips. I think that he doesn't need a big pair to make this play; he could probably be doing this with a lot of hands that you dominate (weak aces, smaller PPs). You have a huge overlay on the pot, too. He's in EP and the blinds are about to hit him; I would say the gap is not very large, so I would push here. I probably wouldn't with 88 though, and I only do so with 99 because of the huge pot overlay.

Swiss Cheese · #6 08-11-2004, 12:14 PM

Fold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't like putting 2/3 of my stack at risk for a coin flip with 20 players and alot of play left. You have a healthy stack steal and play when your more confident of an advantage. I would say with that type of move with someone with 20k they have 10,JJ, maybe QQ, or AQ possibly, all of which are no bargin.

Swiss Cheese

ZootMurph · #7 08-11-2004, 12:23 PM

99 isn't good enough to call an allin. You are behind his range of hands (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, KQ... you could even consider AJs, KJs, QJs if you want). You are a coin toss against most, and dominated by the bigger pairs. Just not worth it without a read whether you want to win or not. Better opportunities will come up, just wait for them [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

durron597 · #8 08-11-2004, 12:30 PM

Are you sure? Look at the stack sizes compared to blinds here. I think he could easily have A8, A7, A6, 88, 77, 66 to make this push. K8 is pushing it so I doubt it but KT certainly is not; you are ahead of most of his hands, could be a big favorite to even more of his hands, and the pot is giving you a big overlay. I would only not call if I had a read that the player is unusually tight.

ZootMurph · #9 08-11-2004, 12:41 PM

20k with 2k/4k blinds and 200 ante in UTG+2 is plenty to wait for one of those hands I've posted. He's got 2 more orbits... more if he is blind stealing. Even with A8, A7, A6 he isn't enough of a favorite to overrule AK, AQ, AJ, or AT, and 88, 77, or 66 don't make up for AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT. Even including those hands you put in, he is STILL behind the range of hands his opponent could hold. With 32.5k chips, our hero has plenty of time to find another opportunity. And blind/ante stealing at this time is very profitable.

My strategy at this point is to blind/ante steal to stay afloat while waiting for the right opportunity to pump up my stack. And, frankly, without a read, I don't put this situation into the 'right opportunity' category.

DOTTT · #10 08-11-2004, 12:39 PM

Without a read I cant blame you for calling or folding. Myself though I call most of the time in this spot. My reasoning is very simple with only 20000 and blinds of 2000/4000 he needs to make a move and fast. He could be pushing here with any two. Taking home the big money usually requires you to make at least one of these tough decisions, hope it worked out for you.