Bigger Swings, SSH.

DerrekL · #1 08-02-2004, 02:01 PM

Now, I can't say this for sure, because I've only played about 1500 hands since reading SSH, but does anyone else seem to be having some massive swings trying to apply its advice? I swear, I've never raised so much in my life! I'm mostly playing 5/10 and 3/6 online, I am up, but it's been like toads wild ride! Up $300 down $500 up $600 down $200. Certainly it's a more exciting game now!

maurile · #2 08-02-2004, 02:21 PM

I have also played about 1500 hands (1491 to be exact) since reading SSH, and have experienced a massive upward swing.

In my last 1491 hands, I've been dealt AA ten times, and they've held up every single time! Since reading SSH, I've averaged 8.62 BB/100 hands.

Thanks, Ed! I fully expect these short-term results to continue indefinitely!

flair1239 · #3 08-02-2004, 02:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I can't say this for sure, because I've only played about 1500 hands since reading SSH, but does anyone else seem to be having some massive swings trying to apply its advice? I swear, I've never raised so much in my life! I'm mostly playing 5/10 and 3/6 online, I am up, but it's been like toads wild ride! Up $300 down $500 up $600 down $200. Certainly it's a more exciting game now!

[/ QUOTE ]

Have not read the book, but I imagine that more aggessive play is going to equal more variance. I think even Malmuth has said at one time that a expert player has a bigger chance of going broke than a good player, simply because of these swings.

I also think that (not trying to start a fight here, just observing), this might be why some of Lee Jones's advice might come off as weak-tight (only bet draws to the nuts...etc). Because I feel that he was to an extent trying to limit variance for newer players.

At a cetain point it is a matter of preference. No doubt that Miller's advice will probably earn more in "the long-run", but I would assume you are going to continue to see bigger swings.

chief444 · #4 08-02-2004, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In my last 1491 hands, I've been dealt AA ten times, and they've held up every single time! Since reading SSH, I've averaged 8.62 BB/100 hands.
.
.
.
Thanks, Ed! I fully expect these short-term results to continue indefinitely!

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think anyone can help these results to continue indefinitely. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

BigBaitsim (milo) · #5 08-02-2004, 04:21 PM

Even before SSH I had started to play more like Miller and less like Jones. My winrate went up, as did my variance. As I adopt a more "Millerian" style of play, I expect this to continue.

flair1239 · #6 08-02-2004, 04:36 PM

I too am trying to learn to be more aggressive. But when I have a downswing, I still tend to "come home" to Jones's advice until I stabilize myself emotionally.

DerrekL · #7 08-02-2004, 04:43 PM

Yes, that does make sense. I noticed the same thing happened to me in NL cash games when I started getting very aggressive. My variance went WAY up, but I started having huge winning sessions - as much as 5 times as much as previous wins. I wouldn't expect the max win to go up that much at limit, but over time the extra bets won via the aggression add up.

DerrekL · #8 08-02-2004, 05:04 PM

You know it's interesting, I haven't lost pocket aces since reading the book either! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

According to my pokertracker until reading SSH I was 0/3 with pocket aces!

Nemesis · #9 08-02-2004, 05:43 PM

my variance is way up as well, +200 -100 +200 again... overall it's g00t advice I think [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I also expect my results to continue.

Blarg · #10 08-03-2004, 12:19 AM

I knew my variance would shoot up, and it has, which can be a little scary. Nightmarish even. But my win rate did shoot up as fast as my blood pressure, even just over the last few days since I got the book.

What I've been watching for and licking my chops over is the anticipation of OTHER people's variance shooting up, though.

Maybe I'm just imagining things, but it seems to me I'm getting called down a lot more with speculative hands, very low pairs, and seeing people trying to push their edges more in the last week. Probably I'm just imagining things, and probably substituting a table or two of $2/4 for the three or four tables of $1/2 I usually play has something to do with it, since most people say $2/4 is a lot looser game on Party. Sure seems to be.

Maybe I'm just imagining the "Miller Effect" already having an impact on the game, but as Ed's book gets some age on it, I have no doubt it will affect the play of more and more people. Recognizing every edge and pushing it hard seems to be what Ed's all about, but doing so definitely takes a lot more skill and alertness than playing safely, and puts a lot more money into play, and much more often.

Heck, seeing the game open up will make the real fishes play even more hands, but without any more knowledge of how to do it right than they've ever had. I think players of all skill levels are going to start getting richer and poorer a lot faster.