What hands would you push here?

[Tosh]

Just crapped out of the $100 NL going all in on the button with A7o. Blinds were 150/300 and I had about 2800, both blinds had me marginally covered.

Was that a loose push? What would you push there?

[vandalay]

Tosh, I doubt Im as good as you are knowing how many post I have seen from you, but I would not push.

I can easily see a 3X-4X blinds but nothing more. I think it accomplishes the same. Me personally, I dont like betting 3000 to win 450

-VI

I have lost too many times pushing with A9 and one of the 2 blinds wakes up with AK or an overpair.

[Tosh]

Generally speaking, given the size of my stack, the option here is all in or fold. I'm all for accepting its a fold but raising 1200 and then folding is not good poker IMO.

[threeonefour]

I probably wouldn't push anything less than AJs or a middling pocket pair.

Actually I think pushing might not be the right play here. If you catch a premium hand I think its good to raise the minimum or maybe 2x-4x the BB. this is because it will look like a steal and it will act like one too. you will win the blinds a fair amount of the time (which is what going allin will do) but it also might induce the blinds to try and reraise (reraise all in even) with weaker hands thinking that you are the one stealing.

in the end you might get weaker hands all in by raising the minimum than you would otherwise.

i know many people say if you have under 10X the bb its allin or fold mode for the most part. but i don't think this is the case here because you are on the button and you only have to worry about the blinds. also they only seem to have about 10x the BB as well

[durron597]

For me, stealing is more about who the blinds are than what cards I have. How aggressive are these players? Do they think that KJ is a hand they can call you with? If they need AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/88/AK/AQ/AJ to make this call I probably still push, any worse and I fold.

[AceKQJT]

Tosh,

You didn't really specify whether there were already any callers, but I assume it was folded to you on the button. If that is the case then I think any Ace, any 2 broadway cards, and any PP would be a push.

It would be a huge mistake to raise 3x - 4x here, as some have suggested (of course, you already know that).

This will look like a steal attempt to the SB & BB (& it is), but they will STILL need to have some kind of hand to call....what are they gonna do? Call your all-in with 2-5o because they think you're on a steal? Nope, I think your push was a good move.

--Casey

[patrick dicaprio]

i think that is a little too loose, i would push A9 or better.

Pat

[ZootMurph]

If I decided to play, push is the only option in my opinion. However, consider that, if everyone is folding, they must not have had many good cards... that means the chances are better for the blinds to have a good card.

Also, I would need a read on the blinds. Are they the type that feel the need to defend their blinds? Without a read on their blind defense, I'm folding A7o in that situation.

I'd only push hands I'd usually play with others in behind me. Since it is an all in or nothing, and you are close to 10x BB and on the button, you aren't in "desperation" mode quite yet. So you still need to play solid hands, ESPECIALLY when you are going all in.

[vandalay]

Tosh,
Your question got me thinking, so I did the math real quick.

I think the math shows this a good bet!!!

First off, against a random hand you only have a 57% chance of winning, with pot equity of 59%, but that is not what we are doing here.

A7o 57.2 3.3 39.5 58.8

However, I am going to assume you only get called with the following hands.
any pocketpair AA-77, A10,AJ, AQ, AK and KQ. (suited or not). Also they might not call with A10

The only one of these you are favored to win is KQ, and even then not by much. In general, IF you do get called, you have 3 outs, either your A or your 8 depending on his hand, with a race on the 77 and a 4/3 advantage on the KQ.

Odds that one of the 2 openents wakes up with one of those hands.
There are 12 chances that someone will wake up with an ace (4 cards, 3 aces left) out of
AA/77 - 3 out of 50 * 2 out of 49 = .005 * 2 (aces and 8s) = .01
KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/88 - 24 out of 50 * 3/49 = .03
Odds on A(K-10) = 3 aces + 16 (K-10) = (3/50 + 16/49) * 2 = .04
Odds on KQ = 4 K + 4 Q = (4/50 * 3/49) * 2 = .01

Total odds you get called = .09 * 2 (players) = 18% of the time

When you get called, your chances of winning are below
On the 7/7 = 30%
on the KQ = 57%
on 88 - KK = 28%
on AA = 8%
on A10 - AK = 28%

Overall average = 30% of the time you will win when called.

Now the fun part, the EV for each hand.

so
82% of the time you win 450
18% you have a 30% chance of winning 3250 = 5.4% chance at 3250
12.6% you lose 2800 = 1/8 times you lose it all

Im not sure about the rest

(.82 * 450 = 369)
+ (.054 * 3250 = 175)
EV of 544 on 7 out of 8 times
with 1 out of 8 you busting out.

If we further do the math, out of 8 times you do this, you would be up +1000

Maybe my math is wrong... lol... Had fun coming up with this.

-VI

PS: Actually the odds that they will wake up with someone is slightly higher than this value, as everyone has folded and that generally means more dead cards in the low end than the high end, but really irrelivant.

[vulturesrow]

Tosh,

Im pushing every time in this situation. I really dont think there is any question.

Chris