SNG Home Edition (unique situation)

[slogger]

Two-table tourney at home game (19 starters), $40 buy-in gets you T10,000. Blinds start down at 25-50 but rise every 15 minutes.

Precursor:
Early in tourney (I believe blinds were 50/100), it's folded to me in SB, and as I look down at 48o, I ask my poker buddy in the BB (he and I have played a lot poker together over the last 6-10 months) if I can steal his blind. He says, "I haven't looked at my cards, man, do what you gotta do." I say, "OK, make it 300." He looks down, grimaces, and folds. I show him my hand (very rare occasion for me, but it's a pretty friendly (though tough) game and we're all having fun. He tells me I had him dominated. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

The Hand:
Fifth level (300/600 blinds and there are still 18 of us) and it's folded to me in the SB again (two orbits later, I believe). I a little below average with 8,800 after posting (he's got 8,300 after posting). Before looking at my cards, I ask him if he's going to let me steal again. He says, "Sure, go for it." I ask if he's looked yet, and he says no. I look down at red 7s. "OK, make it 1,800." No sooner had the words left my lips when he chirps, "All-in."

OK, so now I'm in a quandary. I only have him covered by T200, so I'm literally crippled if I call and lose, but I'm 95% sure he hasn't looked - I asked him again whether he's looked and he says no. I tell him I have a pair. Very little reaction from him. I have reason to trust him here - as I said, its a friendly game and the two of us are friends.

So, I now assume there is a 1% chance he's screwing with me, but I believe deep down he hasn't looked.

Who calls here? Is it even a close decision?

[blendedsuit]

I'd call your buddy based on that info. Did u?

[Michael Davis]

"Who calls here? Is it even a close decision?"

Not if he hasn't looked.

-Michael

[slogger]

I called, assuming he hadn't looked. He hadn't.

But the real question is: From a cash EV perspective (and perhaps this is just too speculative with 18 players remaining in a tourney where only 4 get paid), even if I know with 100 percent certainty that he hasn't looked, would calling here be +EV in a tourney where the blinds rise slowly and I believe I have a significant edge on my opponents going forward?

[slogger]

The results actually have no bearing on the question, but it was one of those interesting (WPT-style) hands in terms of how the cards played out.

I call, he flips over 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. As I mentioned I've got 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Well, I'm ahead and I now have a flush draw (and, irrelevantly, a straight flush draw) to taint his pair and straight outs. Three of four 5s and three of four Ts make him the nut straight. Two of three 9s give him a better pair.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (BRICK!)

River: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Ugh.

[ECondreras]

Even though I hate risking being eliminated so early in a tournament, you have to like your odds of 77 versus a random hand. The only time I could see not calling is if you were by far the best player in the tournament, and while doubling up would be nice, you feel you could make it to the money while playing on four hits of acid.

[poboys]

Forget about EV forget abour random hands, forget about pot odds.

This guy is calling you out. Are you a man or a girl scout? If you call and win, you are a bully. If you fold you look like a pus, and if you call and lose then you are a chump--given those options, push.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[slogger]

Sorry poboys, but the things you're talking about mean nothing to the way I make these kinds of decisions. If they did, I wouldn't be winning ever, let alone consistently.

[ddubois]

So you think table image is irrelevant then.

[DJE]

Seems like there were a lot of 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in that deck.