An Odd Tournament Toughness Rating

[Jason Strasser]

Alright, I had this idea a while ago when I fell asleep at the keyboard during a PartyPoker $50 buy in tourny and managed to place much closer to the money than I'd ever expect.

How about grading tournaments by how long you'd last if you simply post/folded? Is how high/low you'd place more of a reflection of the structure of the tournament or a function of the skill of the players?

I notice on avg in a NL tourny, about 1/2 the people are gone in the first hour. But sometimes it varies...

I was curious what anyone thought about this idea. How interesting would it be to compare where you'd finish if you rebought right away, added on at the break, and post-folded, (10+1 stars rebuy) and see how high in the field you'd finish by post/folding?

Where do you think you could finish the highest? Is this a valid way to judge how "tough" a tournament is?

Peace,
-Jason

[Cleveland Guy]

I'm always amazed that no matter the field - about 50% are gone after 1 hour. That befuddles me.

Are you talking about comparing within a poker site? or across sites? and rebuy vs. Freeze out?

It would be interesting to know the "quality" of a tournament before you enter it.

[MWC]

I was curious about the 50%-in-the-first-hour phenomenon when I first noticed it, so I started tracking it in a fairly casual way but was astounded by the consistency (this was all non-rebuy Party MTTs).

My theory is that Expected time to 0.5*field remaining is determined almost entirely by level duration and buy-in (buy-in=rough surrogate for talent level), with level duration being far more important. (My notes suggested that the $6-11 tourneys were more likely to drop to 50% by 1 hour than the $55-109 tourneys, but not by much, and it never happens by the 1-hour mark in the $162-215 tourneys with longer levels.)

I actually think there's potential for relatively serious statistical scholarship here - before you laugh, remember that a couple guys from UNC-Chapel Hill analyzed a bunch of data from Finley Golf Course and published on the bias in the USGA handicap system.

Whoops, didn't mean to hijack the thread, but if anyone else wants to pursue this, I'd be interested in participating -- PM me and we'll see if we can get anywhere. The hard part would be convincing Party or Stars, etc. to share some data, even though the data they'd need to share wouldn't put any proprietary info at risk.

[t_perkin]

I think it would be fairer to say that it would give you a read on the aggressiveness of the tournament, if not the toughness.

You would have to do a whole stack of them on different sites, different buyins etc. and try and work out what it was actually showing you.

It would be interesting, but time consuming and expensive. If anyone collects the data I would be happy to do a bit of number crunching.

Tim

[AceKQJT]

Party Poker PL Omaha 8
$50 + $5, 120 Entrants, Pays 20 Places

I have slightly less than average chips when we go Hand-for-Hand at 30 left. I get a call from work...BIG TROUBLE, WE NEED YOU HERE ASAP!

Damn...26 left, I have T-2800, Avg = T-4000

I count that I am in 17th position in chips...heck with it. I select Post & Fold, and take off for the power plant. I get back 5 hours later to find that I finished in 10th place for $120 !!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

What is the toughness rating? LOL

--Casey

[woodguy]

Party Poker Million Dollar Guaranteed late May.
Had a family commitment (that I forgot about), so I wasn't anywhere near my computer all day.

Won entry through Satalittle SnG so they wouldn't let me unregistar.

Finished 863 out of 2000.

This tourney doesn't lose 1/2 field per hour, probably only NL tourney on Party that doesn't.

(alway figured I could beat 1/2 of Party in my sleep [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

regards,
woodguy

[MikeGuz]

The 50% thing is a result of the starting stack, time of the rounds and blind progression.

I played in a Trump Casino $500 buy in live tournament yesterday. 60 started, $2500tc at the 1st 2 hour break there were 29 left. Rounds were 30 min.

Mostly competant players not the sort of mutts you find on line who represent all that dead money.

Besides that a "toughness" rating is probably for those with way to much time on their hands.

[jwvdcw]

I agree with the intial post that this is a cool way to determine the toughness of a tourney. Obviously, its not the only measure, but its definitely helpful. If you do any analysis, I would definitely be interested in seeing your results.