Satellite bubble: do you fold AA?

[M.B.E.]

Stars turbo rebuy satellite, 13 players left with 12 getting prizes, except that 12th place gets only $220 (1st through 11th get a $530 seat).

Six at your table, seven at the other and it is hand-for-hand. You have the shortest stack at either table, 3750. Blinds are 4000/8000, ante 400 and will be increased within two minutes.

UTG calls all-in for 6150. Next player (with 5000) folds. Next player calls 8000 (and has 48,000 remaining). You are next (on the button) with AA and 3350 in front of you. Do you call?

In case it makes a difference, the SB and BB have 64,500 and 12,100, respectively, after posting.

[Rick Diesel]

This is a tough question. I could tell you that I would fold KK 100% of the time, but I don't know about AA. I would probably fold, because UTG has to survive this hand against probably 4 opponents, and then UTG+1 has to survive his blind after that. I think you have to play the percentages and let this one go. However, if UTG+1 was not also so short, I would probably play it.i

Rick Diesel

[Cleveland Guy]

If 1st through 11th all get the same prize (The $530 ticket) - FOLD!

If UTG loses, and then the guy with 5,000 loses you did as well as first place.

Plus the other table could have a guy bust out too. You are in the position to wait it out - and since 11th = 1st here (prize wise at least) you only have to wait out 2 more players to get the desired result.

[fnurt]

In this turbo format, it's very dangerous to wait for other people to blind out. The reason is that the blinds get so huge that it's prohibitively expensive for anyone to even CALL the BB. I've often seen people get a free play in the BB when they were all-in, something you would never see in a regular satellite. Or the only person who manages to call is some huge stack with T4o and they just double up.

However, I don't even know if your survival chances go up by winning this hand. You can't bust anyone (you can cripple them, but with blinds this big, they are already crippled), and even if you double up, you will still be all-in when the blinds get to you. So even if your AA holds up, I don't think there is an upside, and I would just sit tight.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
even if you double up, you will still be all-in when the blinds get to you.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I win this hand, I will do much more than double up. I would win 3350 from each of four people (two blinds and two callers), plus 2400 in antes. So I would be at 19150.

By the time the blinds get to me they will be 6000/12000, ante 600.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]

However, I don't even know if your survival chances go up by winning this hand. You can't bust anyone (you can cripple them, but with blinds this big, they are already crippled), and even if you double up, you will still be all-in when the blinds get to you. So even if your AA holds up, I don't think there is an upside, and I would just sit tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's a good point. if you win the hand, you'll have 2400 in antes + 5 * 3350 (2 players in, your own 3350, and the blinds), for a total of 19150, assuming no other players call. you're not going to be able to survive the next round of blinds (b/c you have to pay antes, and it will be 6k/12k before it gets to you). i agree... fold.

(but your survival chances obviously do go up if you call and win.)

[mackthefork]

I think unfortunately you have to call, but it is a horrible spot to be in.

I had a similar spot with JJ in the $3 rebuys where 14 got a 215 ticket and 15th got 170 dollars, I was in the BB with 16,000 left after posting an 8,000 blind, 17 left at time and I see JJ, the big stack at the table min raised to 16,000, I folded after much thought and was blinded away for 16th place about 10 hands later, another guy went out on the same hand but he had about 200 more chips than me. In this one a guy with 1,200 made a comeback to over a 100K i was relying on his elimination.

Regards ML

[donkeyradish]

I'm optimistic that the all-in player is beat and I fold any holding (I would prefer not to have seen my cards if its AA though)

I once improved from 10th to 4th by folding every hand (none of them AA, of course, I'm not advocating it as a general strategy!).

[Cleveland Guy]

It's always dangerous to wait for others to bust out. But one guy is already all in - and covered by at least 2 others.

Another guy has less than the BB - and will have to act before you - so 2 guys will be blinded out before they reach you - other wise I wouldn't wait.

[davidross]

I would call. U really want to move up 2 spots, I think you need to play this.