Interesting hand -- want to take a guess?

[esbesb]

Here is an interesting hand that happened in a live, MTT recently.

I limp in late position with the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Small blind calls. Big blind checks. No one else in the pot.

Flop comes: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] giving me a monster draw.

The blinds check to me. I push all-in. Small blind folds, big blind calls.

Big blind turns over 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for two pair.

When I got home, I ran the hand on twodimes and was interested in the result. Anyone want to venture a guess as to what the probability is for each of us to win this hand?

For anyone who knows the answer without peeking, how do you compute it?

Thanks.

[RPatterson]

Well, he is the favorite.

[soxfan70]

What is it we are guessing? Why you limped with garbage, or why you put your whole tourney on a draw? I don't like either play here, so the odds of who's ahead or behind to me are irrelevant. Maybe I'm too tight, and you would take me to school, but can you explain your thought process on either of those two plays?

[MLG]

When he hits that flop, he is almost always even money to win the hand. You can't think of it like putting your money in on a draw, rather like pushing with AK, playing a coinflip plus folding equity........

As for the limp, questionable at best.

[schwza]

you have 14 outs (6 straight cards, 8 flush cards because the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is dead). the rule of thumb that each out is worth 4% works pretty well, but i think tends to overestimate a little when you have a lot of outs. and then he has 4 outs to redraw.

i'm guessing you're 47% to win.

[woodguy]

Don't forget the Q and 8 combinations that would give him top 2 pair or trip 8's. Or runner,runner 5's for another trip.

regards,
woodguy

[Toddster18]

You are tied. 50/50.

But why?

-Todd

[nsj]

By my fuzzy math, you have about 16-18 clean outs. 9 diamonds minus the 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], any 4, any 9, or a series of running cards that will do: 85, 58, 55, or 88.

My guess is you're probably the slight favourite with two to come, as there are only 4 cards with which he can improve.

[esbesb]

Good job Toddster. It is EXACTLY 50/50 with no chance for a split pot.

As to the other questions . . . . I limped with garbage because I was in late position and the two blinds were tight players that I thought I might be able to outplay after the flop. I don't by the way, classify an 85s as garbage in the same way a T2offsuit is garbage. I'd say that 85s is sort of like day-old pizza, where T2offsuit is like week-old dirty diapers -- both garbage, but at least the pizza has potential.

As to why I pushed . . . well, I figured I had at LEAST a 50% shot if I was called (and actually higher as I had no reason to put the BB on two pair) but figured I'd go ahead and take down the pot right there with the push. If I got called, I really didn't mind.

I thought this was an interesting hand because the odds after the flop were PRECISELY 50/50.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I limped with garbage because I was in late position and the two blinds were tight players

[/ QUOTE ]

And why didn't you raise preflop??

Not very well played preflop.