is this huge risk +EV?

[papawawa]

Ok, I took down a HUGE pot on Pacific Poker tonight, but in retrospect I probably took a greater risk than profitable. Here's the hand, tell me what you think:

Pacific Poker .25/.50
Hero is CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP3 is a very loose aggressive preflop raiser:

PREFLOP: (10 handed) UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="red"> MP3 raises </font>, <font color="orange"> Hero 3-bets </font>, button calls, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="red"> UTG caps </font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="orange"> Hero calls</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

FLOP - 14.5BB (7 players): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, <font color="red"> UTG bets </font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="orange"> Hero raises </font>, button calls, SB folds, <font color="red"> UTG 3-bets </font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="orange"> Hero calls</font>, Button calls .

Turn - 23.5 BB (6 players): A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4 check, <font color="orange"> Hero bets </font>, button folds, rest call.

River - 28.5 BB (5 players): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 check, <font color="red"> MP1 bets </font>, MP3 calls, <font color="orange"> Hero raises </font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds , <font color="red"> MP1 3-bets </font>, MP3 calls, <font color="orange"> Hero caps </font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 44.5BB between UTG, MP1, MP3 and <font color="orange"> Hero </font>.

Results in white below:
<font color="white"> Hero shows full house, Aces up
Everyone else mucks </font>

I am pretty sure I was drawing against UTG's flopped set. Maybe MP1 had a smaller boat. 1)What do you think the hands were? 2) Given their starting hands, is this a +EV play or not?

[adanthar]

With any fewer players in, this is a fold, but okay, you have to play. However, your 3 bet is thin, especially if you think most will call 2 anyway.

On the flop, if UTG is decent and knows MP3 is maniacal, his limp/reraise means he has a pair of 7's beat. Don't bother raising; you are still drawing.

The turn and river play themselves (but you would raise the turn if you called the flop.)

BTW, UTG certainly didn't have 'a set'. Most likely, you were up against KK-JJ.

[btspider]

Your pot count is way off. Nevermind.. BB = SB.

[jacki]

Assuming your bankroll is sufficient for the given limit, there are no huge risks in limit holdem.
There is only +EV or -EV.

[Brian]

Hi papawawa,

Your 3-bet pre-Flop is pretty abysmal unless there is a good chance you can get it heads-up with MP3. At 95% of .25/.50 games, I'd say that you'll almost never get it heads-up, so I'd just call pre-Flop.

The Flop raise is also pretty abysmal. I'd wait until the Turn to raise, or fold if an awful card hits, like a 6. The rest is fine.

-Brian