Overpair on the flop... and I fold....

TRWIII · #1 07-19-2004, 09:28 PM

I'm thinking hands like this are what causes 75BB downswings. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, CO caps, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero folds.

This is a good place to lay it down right? My queens didnt look so good right about now.... anyone raise it?

TRWIII

MoreWineII · #2 07-19-2004, 10:47 PM

There's absolutely no way I'm throwing away QQ there. UTG's raise could mean 10-10, JJ, A-Q/K (spades or not spades)...or nothing at all.

I'm just not ready to give up on this hand yet.

Oh, to answer your question, I would probably 3-bet.

TRWIII · #3 07-19-2004, 10:51 PM

I'm not sure if it makes it right or not and I know its results oriented thinking, but my gut was right. Cut off had 88 and the other guy had AA and it was capped the whole way.

*shrugs*

Anyone else play on, or are there any votes for folding. I'm not sure here.

TRWIII

Alobar · #4 07-19-2004, 10:55 PM

Horrible fold!

there are lots of hands UTG is raising here that you are way ahead of, and you are most assuredly ahead of the BB, and your 3 bet (which is how I'm playing it) could drive the CO off overcards or even maybe KK (yeah, i'd say it was so remote its not worth mentioning, but then you folded QQ to a raise, so anything is possible [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Sure there is every possibility that you are behind a higher pair, or that you get outdrawn anyway, but I think you'd be folding the winner here to much.

Alobar · #5 07-19-2004, 11:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if it makes it right or not and I know its results oriented thinking, but my gut was right. Cut off had 88 and the other guy had AA and it was capped the whole way.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that the CO capped with 88 PF I think goes to show why this was a bad fold. I'm not saying I'm not folding this hand at some point. But definately not in this situation on the flop.

I know you know this already, but I still think its worth mentioning. If playing by your "gut feeling" was +EV people would be beating the craps and roulette tables and Vegas would be a truck stop in the middle of the desert

TRWIII · #6 07-19-2004, 11:01 PM

Alright, new situation. Say I three bet and its capped behind me. The turn came up A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Its bet and raised in front of me. Now do I fold? Here's the rest of the hand just for completeness:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, CO caps, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero folds, CO 3-bets, BB caps, UTG folds, CO calls.

Turn: (13.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, CO raises, BB calls.

River: (17.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, CO bets, BB raises, CO calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

Results in white below: 
BB shows 8s 8h (full house, eights full of threes).
CO shows Ah As (full house, aces full of threes).
Outcome: CO wins 21.25 BB. 

Where do you get away from it? If Im not sure Im behind on the flop, Im darn near positive on the turn. Any help is appreciated

TRWIII

TripleH68 · #7 07-19-2004, 11:02 PM

Four players in for four bets puts up a red flag here. CO capped and BB called. I am afraid I would have folded also. Weak?

TRWIII · #8 07-19-2004, 11:02 PM

Good point. Well taken.

TRWIII

KidPokerX · #9 07-19-2004, 11:04 PM

Results aside, as a routine move this is terrible on partypoker without some big big reads. The question here is whether you want to 3-bet, or just call and see if the BB or CO 3-bet's. I cold call the 2 and see what happens. The proceding action will dictate how clear a fold it is on the turn.

MoreWineII · #10 07-19-2004, 11:09 PM

Once an ace comes on the turn and there is action in front of you, then I think it's a safe fold.

The hand was just sucky for you and it turns out you saved some money by folding the flop, but it's not very often that you are going to have overpair QQ on a crummy flop and go against AA *and* a set.