I have to call....don't I??

davidross · #1 07-13-2004, 12:58 AM

I'm pissed. Out of Super Monday early, but doing real well in the $30 NL at PArty and the Stars Rebuy. In the $30 NL, I've had Aces cracked twice already, but have won some nonster pots and with 170 left have double the average stack at 9K.

Bloinds are 150/300 and I get AA UTG again. My last 4 raises have won the blinds so I make the minimum raise this time, to 600. Still everyone folds to the BB who calls. Flop is Qs 8s 2s. He checks, I bet 2K to make it unatractive for the spade draw (I don;t have As) and he goes all in for 11K.

My guess is a pair and the flush draw, and I call. Wrong, he flopped the flush and I'm out.

Sigh. cracked 3 times in the same tourney [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

ANyone fold on the flop?

Mastermmmm · #2 07-13-2004, 01:13 AM

It is certainly what I would have done. Getting cracked 3 times on your AA in a single tourney is unsual, but it does happen. Unless one of the big boys tell you differnet, I would keep up the same play each time. But remember, that it is seldom a good idea to put all your chips at risk on a bet that is not the pure nuts. (IMHO)

AtlBrvs4Life · #3 07-13-2004, 01:20 AM

You are a much better player than me, but I would have to fold here. If he has a pair and the flush draw, you are a little better than a coin flip, and if he has the flush you are almost drawing dead.

davidross · #4 07-13-2004, 01:28 AM

I'm wondering if th ebest play might have been to check the flop, prepared to bail if the 4th spade comes. And to bet harder on the turn when his hand has fewer outs(presuming I'm ahead). It may have turned out differently, or I might have saved some chips.

SossMan · #5 07-13-2004, 01:31 AM

Just so I have the stacks right.

T1350 in the pot preflop (T600+T600+SB).

You bet T2k and he puts you all in. You have another T9k less T2600 = T6400.
T6400 to win about T18,150?
Getting almost 3:1, I think you have a call. The overbet sure smells like a nut flush draw. Problem is that if he has a made hand, you have only runner runner outs. Obviously, if he has a set, you have 2 outs.
I think I make the call here, but a fold wouldn't be horrible. Overall, I think it's probably +EV, high variance.

AtlBrvs4Life · #6 07-13-2004, 01:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Just so I have the stacks right.

T1350 in the pot preflop (T600+T600+SB).

You bet T2k and he puts you all in. You have another T9k less T2600 = T6400.
T6400 to win about T18,150?
Getting almost 3:1, I think you have a call. The overbet sure smells like a nut flush draw. Problem is that if he has a made hand, you have only runner runner outs. Obviously, if he has a set, you have 2 outs.
I think I make the call here, but a fold wouldn't be horrible. Overall, I think it's probably +EV, high variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm slow but I don't see how the pot is giving him 3:1 odds here. By my calculations its 6400 to call and the pot is 11750. That is 1.8:1.

Claudio86 · #7 07-13-2004, 02:18 AM

Actually, your both wrong on the pot size, as it comes to 14350 after the pusher bets 11000, becuase, theres 1350 preflop, + his 2,000 bet + 11000 raise, to a total of 14350, still you are only getting slightly better than 2:1 on your money which makes it a little risky to make this call as he could easily be doing this with a set, possibly containing a flush card, which would have you drawing very light, and theres no reason to risk the rest of your stack in this situation when you could easily be beat, or at best be only slightly ahead. Fold and keep your stack above average

Gramps · #8 07-13-2004, 02:24 AM

That's a tough one, because you're going to have the best hand a lot of the time. But the cost of going out here it high, as if you fold you still have about 50% more than the average stack (and probably > 50% the median stack), so you're still in really good shape. You're risking a lot by making the call.

If you've seen this guy play fast and loose - one with no "in between gear," then maybe the risk reward is worth because if you do win this pot, you have a huge stack and the final table is looking good. But if he does have a pair + a flush draw, you're about a coin flip with two cards to come (he has 14 outs, though he may make two pair and you could still win if board pairs/you get trips). Even up against just a flush draw, you're only a 2:1 favorite, and if he does have a set or flush, you're practically drawing dead.

Looks like about a coin flip on average. And the chips you'd lose here (all your chips, knocking you out of the tourney) probably have more tangible value than the chips you'd win here. It's not like a cash game where you just calculate pot odds. Those chips you're putting at stake have tremendous value still.

Probably one of those things where the frustration of having your Aces cracked twice already made ya go ahead with it. Happens to the best of them.

Serenity now, serenity now!

Roman · #9 07-13-2004, 02:37 AM

Hero only has T9000 himself, so the 11000 cannot be counted.

Roman · #10 07-13-2004, 02:39 AM

This is a very high variance call, and a fold leaves you in with an above average stack. Especially if the table is as passive as you have described, I fold and wait for a better opportunity. If however, the table was aggresive or you had a small stack, this is an auto-call.