Party 10/20 hand Pre-flop decision

[aces961]

So I'm in the big blind at a party 10/20 6 max table and have AQo. Two limpers to the button who raises. At this point from previous passivity including limping on the button with queens and jacks after other limpers before at this table I'm extremely sure that the button has aces or kings, I'll say equal likelihood of each. After the small blind folds do I call or fold with the AQo.

[bernie]

Even though you will be getting 7-1 on your call if the guys behind you also call, with your read, i don't think you're losing much by folding here if there is anything to be gained. This is a case, imo, where you can use your read and wait for a better spot.

This situation, given your description of the guy and your read, won't come up often at all to really notice a difference in your stack. If he's this tight of a raiser, you'll get plenty of his chips when he's much more passive in the pot. That's the time to go after him. Not when his hand is narrowed to 2 holdings.

b

[Yeknom58]

If he ONLY would raise AA/KK/AK then you could fold or call and make sure you flop KJT or QQQ.

[ike]

Are you sure he's actually a tight raiser? If you've seen him limp QQ and JJ that actually leaves 2 categories he can be in, ubertight raiser or guy who won't raise big pocket pairs. If he's been playing for hours and you've never seen him raise, or if you've seen him raise AA or KK then go ahead and fold. In the case of someone who plays extremely poorly preflop it is important not to fall into the trap of assuming they rank hands properly or categorize hands in a reasonable way. I have certainly played with people who won't raise pocket pairs because "they never win, they just can't hit anything and someone always outruns you" or because they don't want to give away their hand or some similarly absurd reason. Many of these guys will happily raise it up with KJs here. I'm not saying this was the case here, just mentioning a mistake I've seen made, and made myself.

[hawaii]

if you have that great of a read on him that he would only raise with hands that dominate your current holding then i would say fold. is there any chance he is tricky and just decided to

[MrGo]

What is your read on the other players? What are their limping standards? Based on your read of the raiser and the # of players in the pot, I think this is a clear fold. Raising however would be better than calling.

[magic_man]

[ QUOTE ]
So I'm extremely sure that the button has aces or kings, I'll say equal likelihood of each.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it's not equal likelihood of each. You have an Ace in your hand. Therefore he is 2:1 to have KK. You are getting 7:1 on a call and will flop an Ace about 1/6 of the time that he has KK. So 2/3 of the time, you are winning more than 1/6 of the time on the flop, making you about 1:9 to win, plus those small times that you outflop AA. I guess that means it is close, but I'm probably calling here because, as someone said already, it's hard for me to REALLY put him on exactly KK or AA.

~Magic_Man

[DcifrThs]

excellent points ike.

there are many times when i've felt that such and such player who i've been watching for a while couldn't do something b/c he couldn't think like that...but then he goes ahead and does it (limps with TT similar to what you gave as an example...he just doesn't think it wins so why raise with it...then he'll raise j9s b/c hes won big pots w/ it)...miscategorizing players is costly. i tend to keep my reads fairly free flowing until i've seen enough to know i've seen too much...

-Barron

[aces961]

Well to clarify some things. I had played at the table for about 100 hands so far and the player who raised here had not raised on any hand preflop. Also when I said equal liklihood of aces or kings, I meant the read could not distinguish between them, of course there are 3 ways he could have aces and 6 for kings so the kings are more likely, I just didn't think to clarify this when I posted.

If anyone wants to know the result of the hand, as unimportant as they are. I fold preflop. K9x rainbow flop, checked to the button who bets and utg+1 calls. q turn. The button and utg+1 cap. q river, utg+1 bets, button raises and gets called. KK and JTo for the two hands.