When to value bet the river

dana33 · #1 07-10-2004, 03:13 PM

Here's yet another thread involving TT. But my question is not about playing TT as such but the principle: "Value bet the river only when you're likely to have the best hand if called." I checked the river in this case because I figured if my opponent had a Q he would call, and if he had nothing, he would fold anyway. (It was a passive table, so the lack of a flop raise did not rule out a Q, even one with a good kicker.) But what were the chances he had a low pair, and if so that he would call? My sense is that at the microlimits, people call with pretty much anything, so I'm now thinking I should have made a river value bet. (But I had overplayed a few hands lately, getting checkraised or called on the river with better hands when I held less than TPTK, or TPTK with a scary board, so I had become a bit gun-shy.)

Anyway, what rules of thumb do you use in determining whether to make a river bet when you have been betting (and passively called) all the way with a decent but not great hand? What would make you slow down, and what would make you keep firing?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.

River: (8.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

Results in white below: 
BB shows 5d 6s (one pair, sixes).
Hero shows Tc Ts (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 8.25 BB.

nothumb · #2 07-10-2004, 03:32 PM

Dana,

You will be called down repeatedly here by utter crap, especially with the draws out. Even though the flush just got there, I think BB will just as often be playing a straight draw, or a crap pair hoping to hit his kicker, or some other piece of total cheese. I think you need to bet here.

However, I don't have a great way to sum up the principles of value bets for you, because I make too many of them myself. I think the most important factor in this hand is that you got it heads up, which makes it better to bet for value. I think. I really suck at this topic though.

NT

tech · #3 07-10-2004, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I figured if my opponent had a Q he would call, and if he had nothing, he would fold anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your typical calling station with ANY pair (here, a Q,4,2,6,7 or unimproved pocket pair) will call.

[ QUOTE ]
what rules of thumb do you use in determining whether to make a river bet when you have been betting (and passively called) all the way with a decent but not great hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

My rule of thumb: Bet. There are player-dependent and situation-dependent exceptions, but that's pretty much my rule.

detruncate · #4 07-10-2004, 03:52 PM

As you've seen, you'll run into a check/raise now and then (some of them will even be by legitimate hands), and sometimes your opponent will have a passively played queen... but you'll get called by worse hands far more often. If you have a specific read on the player (like that they won't ever call a turn bet and beyond without top pair, for example) then you might think about checking behind. Otherwise I'd bet here. I think the suggestion is that you should be a favourite at least 55% of the time when you're called, so you can do the math if you want to... but it's usually just a matter of looking at your opponents and the board. This one is not too scary. You're heads up. Hobody has seen fit to show any aggression. Probably a good time to bet.

Uppercut · #5 07-10-2004, 07:08 PM

A lot of it is player dependent. I saw a player on Party today call a river bet with 9 high. Against that kind of fish, I bet this river every time. Against a more solid player, I probably check. Against an unknown player, I lean towards betting.

cold_cash · #6 07-10-2004, 07:37 PM

Here are some words of wisdom from MaxPower in one of my old posts concerning when to value bet when all the cards are out.

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:

I would really, really appreciate any tips you guys could give about value betting the river. I need it.

Here is a really simple strategy that you can fall back on when confused. If you opponent is really loose, you should value bet most of you hands. If your opponents is really tight, you should only value bet your really strong hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's a link to the old thread this was in. There's some pretty good stuff in it, I thought.
just click here

Go check it out so you can understand this stuff in context - I don't want to be putting words in anyone's mouth.