I'm the Villain.

[Jake (The Snake)]

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I felt confident that if a spade came he would lay down a significant fraction of the time, which is all I need for the play to be profitable.

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Remember that you have to hit a flush card or queen on the river as well, so the fraction is bigger. This is assuming you are behind.

not bad. I would have put you on Kx [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Borodog]

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[ QUOTE ]
I felt confident that if a spade came he would lay down a significant fraction of the time, which is all I need for the play to be profitable.

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Remember that you have to hit a flush card or queen on the river as well, so the fraction is bigger. This is assuming you are behind.

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Yes. By "significant fraction of the time" I mean that this is one of those few times where having played against someone for thousands of hands, I was confident he would fold if a spade came and I raised. I won't make up some percentage, but I felt it was much more likely than not.

I was thinking about this hand some more last night after posting it, and it occured to me that if he had made his foolish face up fold the LAST time this situation came up, where I actually had a flush and he didn't pay me off, I don't think I try to make this play. Does that sound contradictory? My thinking is that it might occur to him that he had previously shown me that he would fold TPTK heads up on the river for 1 more bet. That might encourage me to take a shot at him, so he should probably call.

[Harv72b]

I think that plays like this are exactly why you take the time to develop reads. Not to say that I'd try this often, but I think it's absolutely worth a shot in this particular, rare scenario.

As ne says, if Hero does get called and loses to the AK, if nothing else this makes it more likely that he'll get paid off by this particular (regular) player in the future. So even if this is a -EV play on this particular hand, I think it has a positive expectancy over the long run.