I'm the Villain.

[newhizzle]

with this read, i like it

edit: hero is going to regret showing you that laydown, im sure

[Felipe]

[ QUOTE ]
You got me. I had A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Because this player was very tight and straightforward, and knows I'm tight, I knew his 3 bet on the flop meant AK (the only time he's tricky is when he has a monster; since he 3-bet the flop he doesn't have AA). I peeled one card to spike my queen with the intention of folding the turn UI.

But then it occured to me that the last N times I could remember making a flush on the river, this dude hadn't paid me off. He was priding himself on making "good folds" against me. So I drew to the flush.

I didn't show.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow! good read! How many times have you played with him to know him that well?

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]

wow! good read! How many times have you played with him to know him that well?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably at least 20 sessions, but I'm not sure exactly how many.

[Jake (The Snake)]

I think both of you played the hand poorly, sorry.

You need to have played with this guy a ridiculous number of times to make this play, and even then it's probably wrong imo. It's not really fair to make judgements about live reads, but I suspect you are overthinking the situation and this is just fps.

Btw, why does he have to have AK on the flop? Why can't he have other aces?

His fold of AK is absolutely terrible too.

[newhizzle]

villain is calling anyway so hes only investing one more bet, you dont think with this specific read this play will work more than 1 in 9 times?

also if he does call, hell probly start paying off your flushes in the future

[shant]

I haven't read the thread yet, but I hate that guy's fold and I especially hate it face up.

[private joker]

I don't like the guy's fold either. Heads-up in a decent sized pot with TPTK is a showdown hand, I don't care what. Oooh, 3 spades on the board! B.S.

If he was so scared of a better hand out there that he didn't want to put 2BBs in on the river, then he should check-call to hopefully induce a bluff from you. If he had checked, are you betting, Borodog?

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to have played with this guy a ridiculous number of times to make this play, and even then it's probably wrong imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guesstimate that I had something around 3000 hands with him live. I felt confident that if a spade came he would lay down a significant fraction of the time, which is all I need for the play to be profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
It's not really fair to make judgements about live reads, but I suspect you are overthinking the situation and this is just fps.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is always possible. It's one of the reasons I posted the hand. It's great that it worked and all, but did I get lucky? I'm not sure. I trusted my read and went with it though.

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, why does he have to have AK on the flop? Why can't he have other aces?

[/ QUOTE ]

He can't have other aces because he doesn't 3 bet me preflop with anything less than AK and JJ+, and has never 3 bet me on the flop with less than top kicker.

[ QUOTE ]
His fold of AK is absolutely terrible too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But he's very weak tight, or else I wouldn't have tried to make the play. He makes terrible folds all the time, particularly against me, because he knows if I'm betting or raising I'm usually winning. As I said, he prides himself on making these folds. He thinks they're the mark of an "expert player." He doesn't realize usually winning still means he only has to be good a small fraction of the time to make calling profitable.

I will say he is the only player at the table I would make this play against, and also that I have made reads at the game that have proved costly because the opponent I put in a little box had evolved and improved his game out of that box. That may be an argument for not trying this sort of play.

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the guy's fold either. Heads-up in a decent sized pot with TPTK is a showdown hand, I don't care what. Oooh, 3 spades on the board! B.S.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. I agree.

[ QUOTE ]
If he was so scared of a better hand out there that he didn't want to put 2BBs in on the river, then he should check-call to hopefully induce a bluff from you. If he had checked, are you betting, Borodog?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hell no. I also don't bet the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], since I don't believe he could laydown top two, even if he "knew" he was beat.

And I do like newhizzle's point that even had he called me, he'd likely start paying off my flushes. That's worth 2 bets right there I think.

[AaronS]

I think this is an interesting way to think about it... What percentage of the time will he lay down when the flush comes? Multiply that by 9 bluff outs (cause you said you wouldn't make this move if the K came) and add that to the 2 non spade Q outs. Then you would need to make an adjustment b/c when the spade comes but he still calls the river, you lose an additional 2 bets...

For example, say he will fold 50% of the time the spade comes. The pot is 7 bets to you on the turn.

2 out of 46 times you make 2 pair and win 9 BB
35 out of 46 times a blank falls and you lose 1 BB
9 out of 46 times a spade comes
out of those, 4.5 times you win 8 BB
4.5 times you lose 3 BB

I think that works out to + .11 BB EV
But of course you can't put him 100% on AK