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#12
05-09-2005, 11:32 AM
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Re: Flop decision
I'd bet just because no one has show any interest in this hand.
I wouldn't expect to pick the pot up, but, what I would want to happen is, if I don't hit a damn thing on the turn, I'd hope they'd all check to me, then I'd check behind, giving me another shot at the draw. 
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#13
05-09-2005, 11:35 AM
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Re: Flop decision
Since the suggestions are somewhat split, which I expected, let me ask a couple of questions.
1) If I'm check/raised by one of the TAG opponents, what hands do you expect they would check/raise with? 2) What is anyone's guess as to my equity against the other 5 hands? 3) What is anyone's guess as to how much betting increases that equity, on average? 4) What is anyone's guess as to how much my equity increases if I'm check/raised by one of the TAG's?
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#14
05-09-2005, 11:41 AM
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Re: Flop decision
Edit - I hated my initial response after looking over others and re-examining Chief's reads. Bet the hand. Getting c/red wouldn't be that bad and ur equity improves if alot of other hands fold here. It's a big pot, go ahead and try to win it.
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#16
05-09-2005, 12:05 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
Since the suggestions are somewhat split, which I expected, let me ask a couple of questions. [/ QUOTE ] This is how'd I'd quickly break it down at the table in the short 30 seconds or whatever I have. [ QUOTE ] 1) If I'm check/raised by one of the TAG opponents, what hands do you expect they would check/raise with? [/ QUOTE ] A9, A7, A4. Basically a Pair or higher. 88 on down. Sets – sure. Possibly overs, if they were really jiggy players. [ QUOTE ] 2) What is anyone's guess as to my equity against the other 5 hands? [/ QUOTE ] Well on the fly at the table, I think I’d recognize I’m probably greater than 17% - so I’m playing. 17% being close to even equity [ QUOTE ] 3) What is anyone's guess as to how much betting increases that equity, on average? [/ QUOTE ] Toughie. Intuitively if I’m right around 17% on the flop – I’d say for every fold that my bet would achieve, I pick up the proportionate amount of equity. Meaning if I get it 4 way – I’ve increase to 25% [ QUOTE ] 4) What is anyone's guess as to how much my equity increases if I'm check/raised by one of the TAG's? [/ QUOTE ] A CR by A9 that folds the field I’m happy with – A CR from 99 that folds the field – I’m not liking it much. Tough to answer this one – facing the field with two bets compared to my single bet above…. Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
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#17
05-09-2005, 12:07 PM
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Re: Flop decision
i think i like betting here because your multiple draws and overs are worth seeing the river with and betting this flop is the best way to ensure that by perhaps cleaning up outs and getting a free card on the turn.
is this preflop call normal?
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#19
05-09-2005, 12:10 PM
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Re: Flop decision
[ QUOTE ]
1) If I'm check/raised by one of the TAG opponents, what hands do you expect they would check/raise with? [/ QUOTE ] Getting check/raised by UTG or BB would be bad news here. If they had a hand that needed protection, they would likely have bet out hoping for MP1 to raise. There is also virtually no drawing hands strong enough to check/raise for value (BB could have something like T8s, but that's about it). So a check/raise probably means a set.
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#20
05-09-2005, 12:16 PM
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Re: Flop decision
I think this is a bet.
A c/r isn't hurting our hand...imo, it helps us. The free card on the turn would be pretty sweet if it happens. By checking we get a free card on the cheap streets when it's possible by betting that we get a free card on the big streets(also a bet *may* protect our hand). I realize that any hand can call profitably, but wouldn't it be good for someone to fold incorrectly?
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