11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable? - Page 4

Exitonly · #31 09-23-2005, 04:02 PM

Can you elaborate?

Tell me what's wrong with my reasoning... I really think this would be a time to take a slightly lower +cEV move, for one that lowers your variance, thus increasing +EV.

If i'm wrong, so be it, but what you said doesn't help me, or anyone.

dmk · #32 09-23-2005, 04:04 PM

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It was 6 handed.

You guys think a fold here is horrible? or silly?

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yes, and yes. of course it is.

Pat Southern · #33 09-23-2005, 04:05 PM

You're still in good shape if you lose the hand, and considering the payout schedule, chipEV is very close to $EV here still. I'm not looking to reduce variance when pushing gives me a better chipEV play.

Pat Southern · #34 09-23-2005, 04:10 PM

Assuming the same oppoents, would you be looking to reduce your variance in a $1 tournament, or take the higher +EV play?

Exitonly · #35 09-23-2005, 04:16 PM

My first instinct was to push (if you read my first post) so most likely if i were in this situation i would have pushed,

I think lowering variance here w/ that stack is a good idea.. though you have a point that he'd be alright if he lost this hand. I think my point would be more valid if villain had hero covered, or was closer.

TomHimself · #36 09-23-2005, 04:22 PM

No, I just think people look to the stop n go too much, I usually use it when I am shorter stacked.

Melchiades · #37 09-23-2005, 05:07 PM

I realy don't get this "fold and outplay them later" attitude. If you give up edges like this you aren't outplaying anyone. I'd love to have people outplay me by laying down AKs to my stealraises.

RavenJackson · #38 09-23-2005, 05:08 PM

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I like the "stop and go", as there is no real downside. This guy is PC'd; however, despite the PC he may get away from a flop that missed. It gives you the opportunity to increase your FE and if he calls post-flop you are in the same position you would have been in had you pushed.

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I hate a stop and go here, you think your opponent will feel pot commited with KQ on a T86 flop but not feel committed with 88 on a QT7 flop?

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That's not what Stop-n-go is... they fold the KQ on that board, and they fold the 88 too... it's positives is they fold middle pairs that whiff.. negatives is they fold hands you ahve dominated that miss too (like KQ)... a stop and go might not be as +cEV here.. but i think because it has a lower variance (higher rate of winning the pot) that it will actually have a higher +EV here.

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I agree 100% [Nothing like pulling myself up by my own bootstraps]. This is a somewhat unique circumstances[with the relative stack sizes, the position and depth of the tournament] where I would seriously consider taking a slight -cEV in exchange for lower variance. In any event, a high percentage of the time the hand plays out exactly the same way it would have had you pushed.

2+2 wannabe · #39 09-23-2005, 06:04 PM

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people overuse the stop n go

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This is a terrible spot for the stop 'n go

I'm not a big fan of it in the first place, but with ak you want to see all five cards, not:

1. push on an a or k flop where you're way ahead and he won't call you
2. push on a non-a or k flop where he will call with a mid-pair and you're way behind

fnurt · #40 09-23-2005, 06:14 PM

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I like the "stop and go", as there is no real downside. This guy is PC'd; however, despite the PC he may get away from a flop that missed. It gives you the opportunity to increase your FE and if he calls post-flop you are in the same position you would have been in had you pushed.

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fnurt's stop-and-go rule: A stop-and-go is only profitable if you have some chance he will lay down a hand that is beating you on the flop. Good luck satisfying that condition here.

If you have AK, he has AQ, and you only win half his stack when you could have had his whole stack by, at worst, giving him three outs twice, that is a mathematical disaster. So there is definitely a downside. The question is, in this situation, can you find me an upside?

It is good to reduce your variance, but people tend to overestimate the extent to which a stop-and-go reduces their variance, and underestimate the value of the extra chips they gain by just pushing preflop.