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#11
08-19-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: what is a gigantic downswing in NL?
Actually, I guess that doesn't seem so outrageous after all.
I've already had a -4 rack downswing, but that was about 80% due to poor play, 20% variance. I'm new at NL, ya know. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] But I've gotten better since then, and haven't had my next DS yet. I'm a pretty good limit player, tho, and I've had 2 -150 BB downswings, which is 6 "buyins" if you can call it that. Many other limit players I know who are as good or better than me have had bigger downswings. They are typical and to be expected. So I guess that just goes to show you that limit really does have higher variance than no-limit. But it's counter-intuitive that it should. So here comes the hijack: why is variance higher in limit than in no-limit? 
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#12
08-19-2005, 04:20 PM
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Re: what is a gigantic downswing in NL?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I have dumped 27 buyins in three days at $100NL deliberately playing like a tard, [/ QUOTE ] BZ, why on earth did you do this? [/ QUOTE ] lol...drunk and stupid. Had a bad session Thursday, started playing badly, dropped about $500, next night I go clubbing, back home at 2am, start going all in every hand for kicks (I had a decent bankroll at this point). It was hilarious, in no time the whole table was going all in with A anything and pairs trying to double up. One guy made $500 on a single hand with AQ after another deep stack called my push with AT and someone else called with 66. So yeah it was fun, next night I did the same, ended up dumping $2700 by the end of Saturday night. On the plus side, the regulars who saw this go down are easier to stack. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#13
08-19-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: what is a gigantic downswing in NL?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I have dumped 27 buyins in three days at $100NL deliberately playing like a tard, [/ QUOTE ] BZ, why on earth did you do this? [/ QUOTE ] lol...drunk and stupid. Had a bad session Thursday, started playing badly, dropped about $500, next night I go clubbing, back home at 2am, start going all in every hand for kicks (I had a decent bankroll at this point). It was hilarious, in no time the whole table was going all in with A anything and pairs trying to double up. One guy made $500 on a single hand with AQ after another deep stack called my push with AT and someone else called with 66. So yeah it was fun, next night I did the same, ended up dumping $2700 by the end of Saturday night. On the plus side, the regulars who saw this go down are easier to stack. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] lol; I bet you made it onto plenty of buddy lists. I hope you have since taught the folks who added you to their buddy lists about the folly of hubris. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#14
08-19-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: what is a gigantic downswing in NL?
[ QUOTE ]
...start going all in every hand for kicks (I had a decent bankroll at this point). It was hilarious, in no time the whole table was going all in with A anything and pairs trying to double up. One guy made $500 on a single hand with AQ after another deep stack called my push with AT and someone else called with 66. So yeah it was fun, next night I did the same, ended up dumping $2700 by the end of Saturday night.... [/ QUOTE ] Sounds it was a wild session. Did the site investigate you for collusion?
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#15
08-19-2005, 04:32 PM
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Re: what is a gigantic downswing in NL?
[ QUOTE ]
The most statistically deviant downswing in limit I hear talked about on these boards is around 300BB, so what's the equivalent (in buy-ins) for NL? 5? 8? 23? [/ QUOTE ] I'd say 10 buyins is a MAJOR downswing and 6-8 is big, uncomfortable and bound to happen. This is just from my experience though. Maybe a geek like Mason could come up with a more reasonable expected standard deviation for TAG play in loose games. I usually don't drop more then 4 buyins though playing full ring. and I am LAGish postflop.
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#16
08-19-2005, 04:32 PM
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Re: what is a gigantic downswing in NL?
it really depends on how you play. if you play tight and pretty weak, generally 4-5 is a big downswing. if you play more aggressive and mix it up, lag a bit, i would consider 10 big.
this is all at 400-600nl and under. variance goes way way up when you go higher.
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#17
08-19-2005, 04:43 PM
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Re: what is a gigantic downswing in NL?
[ QUOTE ]
"... graph thingy..." [/ QUOTE ] speaking of graph thingy, does PokerTracker give you a graph of your bankroll? If so, how do you get to it?
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#18
08-19-2005, 04:51 PM
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Re: what is a gigantic downswing in NL?
www.pokertracker.com/forum (The poker tracker holdem forum)
look for vern's graphing tool, it should be stickied, you may have to search around in the thread to find the correct one as it has been discontinued and moves regularly...make sure you get the one NOT set to expire.
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#20
08-19-2005, 05:44 PM
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Re: what is a gigantic downswing in NL?
[ QUOTE ]
So here comes the hijack: why is variance higher in limit than in no-limit? [/ QUOTE ] With limit games, you lost control of the table. You cannot bet enough to force people out. You have many multipot hands. You get more callers in limit. Even a monster hand like AA has a larger chance to lose the pot in limit than in no limit. In NL games, I can isolate a player by rasing enough bet. I can force people out by betting enough so I don't get outdraw by others in later streets.
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