Bubble - hero is behemoth

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t1346)
Button (t1834)
SB (t710)
Hero (t4110)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Two cards
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t500</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t300.

Flop: (t1100) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t3610 (All-In)</font>

<font color="blue"> Thoughts? </font>

[HesseJam]

Doesn't this mostly depend on how you played the previous hands and how villain played his?

If you do not bluff, with what kind of hands would you call the pf raise and not reraise?

If you had a J, would you go all-in?

If I was villain, and had no other reads I would put you on either a bluff or a heart draw. Since you called preflop the heart draw should be something like AT, KQ or KT. So, if i have any of these cards I probably call your all-in to make a move towrds first place. Otherwise, I muck and try to play ITM.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't this mostly depend on how you played the previous hands and how villain played his?

If you do not bluff, with what kind of hands would you call the pf raise and not reraise?

If you had a J, would you go all-in?

If I was villain, and had no other reads I would put you on either a bluff or a heart draw. Since you called preflop the heart draw should be something like AT, KQ or KT. So, if i have any of these cards I probably call your all-in to make a move towrds first place. Otherwise, I muck and try to play ITM.

[/ QUOTE ]

what HesseJam said. The flop is bad for this because you don't have much to represent. Villain could put you on a heart draw or a low pocket pair and that's it.


Still, it's only 1100 to win 1100 and even if you are called you probably have outs. For me, it's close... hmmmm... but I probably wouldn't risk my chiplead = bully power.

Even if villain puts hero on not much it's still awful hard for him to call without something solid himself.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if villain puts hero on not much it's still awful hard for him to call without something solid himself.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. What will he call with then?

A pocket pair? Yes. How often does he have this, I'd say 30% of the time.

A Jack? Yes. He has a Jack 8% of the time.

High cards. ?? He has high cards the rest of the time (62%), the question is how often he will call with these. If he folds them mostly then I think we have a winning play. If he calls mostly then we lose.

Do you agree? (And how often does he call with high cards?)

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]

A pocket pair? Yes. How often does he have this, I'd say 30% of the time.

A Jack? Yes. He has a Jack 8% of the time.

High cards. ?? He has high cards the rest of the time (62%), the question is how often he will call with these. If he folds them mostly then I think we have a winning play. If he calls mostly then we lose.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you've got to include some chance that he was (incompetently) stealing with any two. Maybe not much, since a lot of people don't like trying to steal from the chip leader, but you've got to give this some possibility. Maybe 10-20%?

I think this just makes this play even more in your favor, so it doesn't make much of a difference, but like Harrington's admonition that there's almost always at least a 10% chance that your opponent is bluffing, I think you've got to include some chance in any preflop open-raise evaluation that your opponent was on a bald steal.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
hmmmm... but I probably wouldn't risk my chiplead = bully power.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm certain that my actions here are bullying.

Furthermore, there is no better stack to bully than the 2nd stack.

I'm not trying to justify my actions. I'm just looking for more fault. I don't mind giving the chips to villain (the pf call chips) if I don't care for the board. But I certainly like the JJ2 board.

[Taraz]

What level is this? I generally like this kind of move if you know that the button is capable of folding. Most people are too scared of busting out in 4th to call. Besides even if you lose this hand you're still in 1st.

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides even if you lose this hand you're still in 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is that?

[handsome]

Typical bubble move, works in all levels.