Passively Played Pair of Kings

[MaxPower]

Is this a good line here? UTG+1 is TAG, MP2 is very LAG.

PartyPoker - $15/$30 Texas - 9 players (Converter: PGC)

Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

PreFlop
<font color="blue">UTG folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 RAISES</font>, <font color="green">MP1 Calls</font>, <font color="green">MP2 Calls</font>, <font color="red">Hero RAISES</font>, <font color="blue">CO folds</font>, <font color="blue">Button folds</font>
<font color="blue">SB folds</font>, <font color="blue">BB folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 RAISES</font>, <font color="green">MP1 Calls</font>, <font color="green">MP2 Calls</font>, <font color="green">Hero Calls</font>

(4 players) FLOP: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 8.83 BB )
<font color="red">UTG+1 BETS</font>, <font color="blue">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="green">MP2 Calls</font>, <font color="green">Hero Calls</font>

(3 players) TURN: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 10.33 BB )
<font color="green">UTG+1 checks</font>, <font color="green">MP2 checks</font>, <font color="green">Hero checks</font>

(3 players) RIVER: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 10.33 BB )
<font color="green">UTG+1 checks</font>, <font color="red">MP2 BETS</font>, <font color="green">Hero Calls</font>
<font color="green">UTG+1 Calls</font>

[Justin A]

I don't like your turn check. You've got the best hand a good majority of the time with that action and you'll get value from other pocket pairs.

I think you should raise the river and hope UTG+1 calls two cold with his pocket pair.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like your turn check. You've got the best hand a good majority of the time with that action and you'll get value from other pocket pairs.

I think you should raise the river and hope UTG+1 calls two cold with his pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you putting MP2 on. Hero said he was "very lag", does that mean its impossible for him to cold call twice with a raggy ace? I'd be considering two things on the turn, before deciding to bet. The first is how likely I think it is that MP2 has some junky ace (wouldn't we expect him to 3 bet PF with a good one, or with a pocket pair?) and whether or not I think he was "slowplaying" on the flop, and is trying to check raise me on the turn.

Secondly, and related to the first, can I fold to a c/r? If not, because this guy is so lag, i like the check. If I had JJ, it'd be different, but there aren't any river cards i've really all that scared of here.

Raising the river seems equally risky. The TAG isn't calling 2 with most hands (especially since our turn check screams MONSTER), and is LAG is bluffing he'll fold.

What am I missing?

lf

[Nigel]

[ QUOTE ]

What am I missing?

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing, IMO. I'm with you - good analysis.

Nigel

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like your turn check. You've got the best hand a good majority of the time with that action and you'll get value from other pocket pairs.

I think you should raise the river and hope UTG+1 calls two cold with his pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you putting MP2 on. Hero said he was "very lag", does that mean its impossible for him to cold call twice with a raggy ace? I'd be considering two things on the turn, before deciding to bet. The first is how likely I think it is that MP2 has some junky ace (wouldn't we expect him to 3 bet PF with a good one, or with a pocket pair?) and whether or not I think he was "slowplaying" on the flop, and is trying to check raise me on the turn.

Secondly, and related to the first, can I fold to a c/r? If not, because this guy is so lag, i like the check. If I had JJ, it'd be different, but there aren't any river cards i've really all that scared of here.

Raising the river seems equally risky. The TAG isn't calling 2 with most hands (especially since our turn check screams MONSTER), and is LAG is bluffing he'll fold.

What am I missing?

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

The way the action played out it's very unlikely that either opponent has an ace. We can fairly safely put UTG1 on TT-QQ, and since it was UTG1 that bet the flop, it's very unlikely that MP2 would check the turn after he checks if he did have an ace.

That's also why I like the river raise. UTG1 will have a very tough time laying down QQ or JJ even for two bets on that river.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the river seems equally risky. The TAG isn't calling 2 with most hands (especially since our turn check screams MONSTER), and is LAG is bluffing he'll fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

In what way does checking with position "scream monster"? I'd say it looks very weak to me. Similarly, raising a known LAG on the river could easily be an attempt to grab a pot in which no one seems to have much interest.

I expect QQ-TT to call 2 cold here. I also expect the LAG to call the raise with just about anything. To me, raising seems pretty clearly best.

If you assume that a raise will fold out the other two, than of course you can make an argument for an overcall. With only one potential overcall though, you need a significant concern that you are behind the bettor, or that there is no way he will call a raise. I don't think this hand qualifies in either category. After the turn, MP2 knows with virtual certainty that no one has an ace. Your river raise will surprise everyone. I expect them to be very suspicious.

good luck.
eric

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
In what way does checking with position "scream monster"? I'd say it looks very weak to me. Similarly, raising a known LAG on the river could easily be an attempt to grab a pot in which no one seems to have much interest

[/ QUOTE ]

When considering the turn action combined with preflop and flop, I think the turn check is a sign of extreme strength, or extreme weakness. Just calling on the river furthers the image of extreme weakness and guarantees an overcall from the guy w/ QQ-TT. The turn check/river raise now pushes the perception to either extreme strength, or absolutely nothing. Given that the players in this pot know that Hero is TAG, absolutely nothing is impossible on that board. I think just calling not only assures us of an overcall, it also gives QQ a chance to make a horrible river raise, thinking he's doing it for value.

lf

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]

When considering the turn action combined with preflop and flop, I think the turn check is a sign of extreme strength, or extreme weakness. Just calling on the river furthers the image of extreme weakness and guarantees an overcall from the guy w/ QQ-TT. The turn check/river raise now pushes the perception to either extreme strength, or absolutely nothing. Given that the players in this pot know that Hero is TAG, absolutely nothing is impossible on that board. I think just calling not only assures us of an overcall, it also gives QQ a chance to make a horrible river raise, thinking he's doing it for value.

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see anyone checking a monster hand with position and two opponents on the turn. I can't fathom how you read this hand this way.

Further, your own analysis, even if we accept it, suggests that raising is better. How can QQ fold on an AAA board if he reads us for either a monster or nothing on the turn? The A hitting should make him think it more likely we are bluffing. Even if he does read us for strength, I don't think many players are capable of folding this hand.

Finally, hoping for QQ to raise doesn't gain you much, as 3-betting will be difficult.

Good luck.
Eric

[JimmyV]

[ QUOTE ]

In what way does checking with position "scream monster"? I'd say it looks very weak to me. Similarly, raising a known LAG on the river could easily be an attempt to grab a pot in which no one seems to have much interest.

I expect QQ-TT to call 2 cold here. I also expect the LAG to call the raise with just about anything. To me, raising seems pretty clearly best.

If you assume that a raise will fold out the other two, than of course you can make an argument for an overcall. With only one potential overcall though, you need a significant concern that you are behind the bettor, or that there is no way he will call a raise. I don't think this hand qualifies in either category. After the turn, MP2 knows with virtual certainty that no one has an ace. Your river raise will surprise everyone. I expect them to be very suspicious.

good luck.
eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Good post and good multilayered thinking imo. Agreed on all counts, especially the all-important last sentence.

Raise it up! You have the second nuts.

Unconfrontationally,

JimmyV

[sfer]

I think UTG+1 has to call with QQ/JJ less than never to make raising less profitable than calling on the river.