Can you ditch the ladies here?

[UVaHoo]

This hand reminds me of one in the "Loose games" section of HPFAP. Your preflop 3-bet didn't get anyone to fold, so now you have a huge pot and anyone can chase anything. The flop isn't great for you, and you're not going to fold out anything by raising to trap the extra field for one bet. With the SB likely to go all-in, you could play the flop weakly and hope that the sb will bet out on the turn, allowing you to trap the field for 2 bets cold. Unfortunately, the turn was one of 2 or 3 cards you particularly didn't want to see, so it's probably best to let the hand go when you know you're beat. What would they be calling with on the flop that you still have beat?

Is this too weak tight? Am I misapplying the "don't push a super small edge in favor of pushing a bigger edge on the turn" concept?

[DMBFan23]

go Hoos. that's all I have to say. F you, florida state.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
It's very hard to protect your hand on this 15-SB flop. It looks like you checked intending to check-raise, and if it had been checked around to the MP3, who bet, then your raise would have faced 2 players with a tough call if they held overcards or something weird. But the guy on your left bet, so I'm thinking you should have abandoned your plan when he bet, and called to see the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Jojo, I don't mean to pick on you specifically, but your comments here are an excellent example of a common misunderstanding of where profit comes from in poker.

Hypothetical situation:
Heads up. Villian has 10% equity (say ~5 outs on the turn). There will be 12 bets in the pot when it's villain's turn to act. We have the choice of facing villian with 1 bet, or 1 bet twice (like this hand), or 2 bets cold (and we know villian will correctly fold). Which would we prefer?

Option 1: villian puts in 1 bet. We gain .9 bets, since villian will lose the hand 90% of the time.

Option 2: villian puts in 2 bets. We gain 1.8 bets.

Option 3: villain folds. We gain 1.2 bets (villian's share of the pot).

In the OP's hand, if he knew that button was going to bet, then he should go for the c/r. It would be nice to fold out weak draws, since that earns more than just betting out, but getting them to incorrectly pay 2 bets on a weak draw is usually better yet. [The math is slightly different for multiway hands, but generally isn't different enough to change the concept that villain making a mistake is better for hero than villian playing correctly. See the FTOP section in TOP for more details on this].

The problem with c/ring this particular hand is, as many have pointed out, that after hero 3-bet PF, people are going to be unwilling to bet and it might get checked around.

[ QUOTE ]
Is it really that bad if it's checked around on the flop? You then bet out on the turn giving callers only 4-1 pot odds or so. Or raise if the SB bets, facing the field with even worse odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's REALLY bad to let weak draws hang around for no bets, especially when the board is so coordinated.

If you knew for a fact that someone would bet both the flop and turn, then an argument could be made to wait for the turn. But, generally speaking, slowplaying a non-monster hand like QQ in a big pot is a huge mistake.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's very hard to protect your hand on this 15-SB flop. It looks like you checked intending to check-raise, and if it had been checked around to the MP3, who bet, then your raise would have faced 2 players with a tough call if they held overcards or something weird. But the guy on your left bet, so I'm thinking you should have abandoned your plan when he bet, and called to see the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Jojo, I don't mean to pick on you specifically, but your comments here are an excellent example of a common misunderstanding of where profit comes from in poker.

Hypothetical situation:
Heads up. Villian has 10% equity (say ~5 outs on the turn). There will be 12 bets in the pot when it's villain's turn to act. We have the choice of facing villian with 1 bet, or 1 bet twice (like this hand), or 2 bets cold (and we know villian will correctly fold). Which would we prefer?

Option 1: villian puts in 1 bet. We gain .9 bets, since villian will lose the hand 90% of the time.

Option 2: villian puts in 2 bets. We gain 1.8 bets.

Option 3: villain folds. We gain 1.2 bets (villian's share of the pot).

In the OP's hand, if he knew that button was going to bet, then he should go for the c/r. It would be nice to fold out weak draws, since that earns more than just betting out, but getting them to incorrectly pay 2 bets on a weak draw is usually better yet. [The math is slightly different for multiway hands, but generally isn't different enough to change the concept that villain making a mistake is better for hero than villian playing correctly. See the FTOP section in TOP for more details on this].

The problem with c/ring this particular hand is, as many have pointed out, that after hero 3-bet PF, people are going to be unwilling to bet and it might get checked around.

[ QUOTE ]
Is it really that bad if it's checked around on the flop? You then bet out on the turn giving callers only 4-1 pot odds or so. Or raise if the SB bets, facing the field with even worse odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's REALLY bad to let weak draws hang around for no bets, especially when the board is so coordinated.

If you knew for a fact that someone would bet both the flop and turn, then an argument could be made to wait for the turn. But, generally speaking, slowplaying a non-monster hand like QQ in a big pot is a huge mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post, SE.

[callmedonnie]

checking this flop is criminal.

[JojoDiego]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's very hard to protect your hand on this 15-SB flop. It looks like you checked intending to check-raise, and if it had been checked around to the MP3, who bet, then your raise would have faced 2 players with a tough call if they held overcards or something weird. But the guy on your left bet, so I'm thinking you should have abandoned your plan when he bet, and called to see the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Jojo, I don't mean to pick on you specifically, but your comments here are an excellent example of a common misunderstanding of where profit comes from in poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm grateful you responded specifically to my post--I'm desperately trying to get better, and this kind of direct dialogue really helps.


[ QUOTE ]
In the OP's hand, if he knew that button was going to bet, then he should go for the c/r. It would be nice to fold out weak draws, since that earns more than just betting out, but getting them to incorrectly pay 2 bets on a weak draw is usually better yet. [The math is slightly different for multiway hands, but generally isn't different enough to change the concept that villain making a mistake is better for hero than villian playing correctly. See the FTOP section in TOP for more details on this].

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with c/ring this particular hand is, as many have pointed out, that after hero 3-bet PF, people are going to be unwilling to bet and it might get checked around.

[ QUOTE ]
Is it really that bad if it's checked around on the flop? You then bet out on the turn giving callers only 4-1 pot odds or so. Or raise if the SB bets, facing the field with even worse odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's REALLY bad to let weak draws hang around for no bets, especially when the board is so coordinated.

If you knew for a fact that someone would bet both the flop and turn, then an argument could be made to wait for the turn. But, generally speaking, slowplaying a non-monster hand like QQ in a big pot is a huge mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

So, since there's very little chance a flop bet protects our hand, the flop bet is almost purely a value bet--correct? If so, what about what SSHE says in the footnote on p. 165 following the discussion of a K-K hand in a very large pot:

"Sometimes you should forgo a small edge on the flop if doing so allows you to exploit a bigger edge on the turn."

And on p. 166:

"Is the pot on the flop so large that you expect no one to fold, even for a raise? If so, consider waiting for the turn."

Now, the K-K example hand that prompted this text in SSHE was significantly different than the OP's hand. Among other things, a villain directly to the hero's right bets out on the flop, so the hand can't get checked around. I take it this wait-for-the-turn tactic should not apply in this Q-Q hand? If that's correct, why not?

One last thing: Does the phrase in the p. 166 quote "even for a raise?" suggest that you should also consider the wait-for-the-turn tactic if you're faced with a bet-the-flop/check-the-flop decision in a situation like the K-K hand in SSHE? In other words, if it's checked to the hero in the K-K hand, should he check or bet?

Thank you in advance.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Among other things, a villain directly to the hero's right bets out on the flop, so the hand can't get checked around. I take it this wait-for-the-turn tactic should not apply in this Q-Q hand? If that's correct, why not?


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't have SSHE handy right now so my comments could be way off. But as I said in my original analysis, if you knew that someone was going to bet the flop and turn, then you could make an argument for waiting for the turn. In the hand in this thread, you do not know that someone will bet. In the hand from SSHE, not only do you know that someone will bet, there's a really good chance that person will bet the turn and allow you to face any remaining players with 2BBs, instead of 2sbs on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
One last thing: Does the phrase in the p. 166 quote "even for a raise?" suggest that you should also consider the wait-for-the-turn tactic if you're faced with a bet-the-flop/check-the-flop decision in a situation like the K-K hand in SSHE? In other words, if it's checked to the hero in the K-K hand, should he check or bet?


[/ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, it's virtually never correct to give a free card when you have the best, but vulnerable, hand. There are times to wait for the turn to raise, but you always want to make sure at least one bet goes into the pot on each street.

One of the 2+2 books, I think HEFAP, has an example hand where hero checks through AA on the button on the flop in order to manipulate the pot odds on the turn. The logic in the example is well explained. But I've always thought that if that situation ever presented itself to me, either 1) I have gotten so good that I'm able to hold my own against the stars of the sport or 2) I need to find a better table.