PP 50-100 JJ hand.

[highlife]

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You're talking about a 3.5BB bluff line with from a guy with an aggression factor of 1. Ain't happening

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Wouldn't a player with a low aggression factor be more likely to bluff raise on the river that one with a high one? A really aggressive player would not expect to get a lot of respect and would not expect a bluff to work, while a rock could expect the river raise bluff to work now and then.

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Great point.

Along with that, wouldn't the villian to be more likely to bluff a smallish pot than a large one, expecting hero to be more likely to fold?

[DanZ]

I think it makes big difference if you have the Js or not. I will spell out my read of his hand:

small pair lower than jacks -

very unlikely. This hand will usually, but not always, raise the turn in this spot, assuming the opponent is competent and not overly fearful of your 3 bet. He does not have much evidence you have a king, and should be delighted to make you fold AJ/QJ/AQ.

a flush -
if he turned backdoor spades, he will also raise a lot. However, the bigger these are - like AsJs, or AsQs, and perhaps AsTs, may not raise, as they can now be used as bluff catchers on the river. A weaker spade draw would almost have to raise and try to win the pot.

QQ - almost identical to a king, especially a weak one. No real compulsion to make opponent fold on an earlier street, only modest prospects of a true value raise. This is a classic slowplay spot.

JJ - very unlikely, but possible. Almost as good a slowplay as QQ, but not quite.

any king - perfectly reasonable to keep calling along with this hand at least until the end. where a raise may be in order.

bigger hand - almost certainly raises earlier, but possible

ace high - well, not so sure anything worse than AQ would stick around, and AJ is not all that likely. this doesn't seem to fit very well, similar to 88, I would expect a big ace to raise earlier and not risk a devastating free card if it will be played for the best hand.

- straight draw This is pretty likely also. a flopped open ender may have raised, but not necessarily. top end gutshot might play meekly also.


back to our decision. I am not seeingh a lot of hands that will call a bet here but not bet themselves. I think an AQ may bet, as would a tiny pair most of the time (though we discounted this). The busted straight draw would almost certainly bet, and not knowing the opponent well, I'd be hesitant to fold to a raise.

So, I'd check on the end, and virtually always call.

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're talking about a 3.5BB bluff line with from a guy with an aggression factor of 1. Ain't happening

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't a player with a low aggression factor be more likely to bluff raise on the river that one with a high one? A really aggressive player would not expect to get a lot of respect and would not expect a bluff to work, while a rock could expect the river raise bluff to work now and then.

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from the OP "folded to button (28/7/1)"
this guy is not a rock, he's a loose passive donator. change the numbers to something like 16/11/1.5 and i think its a valid concern that this guy thinks he can get away with river bluffs, but the 28/7/1 doesn't think much at all nevermind on this level.

[DcifrThs]

very easy bet.

-Barron

[DeeJ]

check-call cuz i'm a wuss [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] ?

edit: I see dcifr says it's a very easy bet well the number of times he has a K he's not folding it and he could be calling down the flush (occasionally)... depends on the player but if he's passive he could easily have the flush draw or a weak King. Could bet & fold to a raise also [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]