PP 50-100 JJ hand.
 

JJ in the BB. folded to button (28/7/1) who raises, I three bet, BB calls two cold. 3 to the flop.

flop is K67, rainbow. I bet, BB folds, button calls.

Turn is 7s, puts two spades on board. I bet, button calls.

River is 3s. My move?

Thanks!

TSP

Re: PP 50-100 JJ hand.
 

I'm assuming you meant that you are in the SB.

I think you have a value bet there, seems like you would have heard from a king by now, and you will get called by 88/99/TT, maybe even a hand like AQ. Have you ever seen him go passive with top pair before? He is not super aggressive, so I guess he could conceivably have a weak king, but I think you will get called by a lot of weaker pairs, and maybe ace high, and since you will be calling a bet anyway I'd say bet it.

Re: PP 50-100 JJ hand.
 

The small pfr% and low AF is kind of a scare to me.
Should I Bet?
I'd consider what I can beat that will call a bet: 88, 99, TT, some extra random hand that is always a chance to be out there like 55.
What can't I beat: AK, KQ, KJ, QQ, and some random hand which could be out there (you mention running spades, so I'll assume that a spade was on the flop as well) like AJs or KT.

Given this, I don't think I'd bet. The AF and PFR% are low enough that your opponent could be calling down with KJ or KQ.

Re: PP 50-100 JJ hand.
 

Bet, watch his pocket pair call you, profit!

Edit: Oh yeah...fold to a raise. That part's easy.

Re: PP 50-100 JJ hand.
 

I like bet-fold here. He has 3 possible holdings: a K, A high, or a middle pair. If he had a K I believe we would've heard from it by now, but he may be waiting til the river to raise it. If we are raised on the river I think we have an easy fold, as I dont see what hand he could be calling down and then bluffing the river with.

I think you will get called a lot here with A high here, and all of the middle pairs will look you up.

Re: PP 50-100 JJ hand.
 

you don't get bluff raised here on that river? Happened to me 3 times last night, by reasonable (stats wise) players. It normally is not that common, but I don't think we can fold to a river raise here.

Re: PP 50-100 JJ hand.
 

what hand bluff raises?

Re: PP 50-100 JJ hand.
 

You're talking about a 3.5BB bluff line with from a guy with an aggression factor of 1. Ain't happening

Re: PP 50-100 JJ hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're talking about a 3.5BB bluff line with from a guy with an aggression factor of 1. Ain't happening

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't a player with a low aggression factor be more likely to bluff raise on the river that one with a high one? A really aggressive player would not expect to get a lot of respect and would not expect a bluff to work, while a rock could expect the river raise bluff to work now and then.

Re: PP 50-100 JJ hand.
 

Its defintely a bet. There are just way too many hands he will call with. He is never checking a better hand behind, and it doesnt seem like the best situation to induce a bluff. As far as paying off a raise I really think you can flip a coin.