Top set gets raised on the river

[jacki]

I used to post here a bit and read a lot, now I don't. But now I'm playing limit more, so there you go.


I raise UTG w/black JJ.
UTG+1 (13vpip, 12pfr) 3bets.
UTG+2 (99vpip, 0pfr) cold calls. He has 2 cards.
Folded back to me, I call.

FLOP
8h 5d Jd
I check. Bet, call, call

TURN
6h
I check. Bet, call, I raise, call, call

RIVER
4h
I bet, get raised by the TAG, calling station folds, and I ...

raise, because he's overplaying AA-QQ, or call because of the flush possibilities, or fold for the same reason?

[SuitedDucks]

i just call here. im assuming the TAG nkows that you are also TAG so hes not gonna raise AA-QQ here most of the time. Also if he does have something like AKh, youre gonna get 3bet after you raise and its hard to fold with top set.

[milesdyson]

why did you just check call the flop?

[jacki]

[ QUOTE ]
why did you just check call the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I was pretty sure calling station would let me check raise the turn, and I could get 2 BBs from both there.

[shant]

I'm a moron and misread hand action. This is a lot closer than I initially thought.

[hobbsmann]

3-bet the river as there are more combos of AA-QQ than AQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/AK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[jacki]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet the river as there are more combos of AA-QQ than AQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/AK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, but does a reasonable player raise this river with AA-QQ? Remember, calling station is still hanging around when the action first gets to the TAG. If I've got AA in this spot, I'd probably like to see a showdown and hope the see my AJ or QQ

[jacki]

So anyways, I 3bet the river, he capped, I slapped my forehead and said "Why did I do that?"
Then I crying called and he had AKh, obviously.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet the river as there are more combos of AA-QQ than AQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/AK[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, u can't just use ratios here. You have to examine the action and put urself in the position of the opponent (which is a lot easier to do with tight players) and then estimate percentages with possible hands. I assume u already knew this and didn't put much into the response (happens all the time for me), but others on this board may not understand this.

He is much more likely to three bet the turn if he is going to raise again with the drawiness of the board than go for an OC from an idiot w/ AA-QQ.

[elindauer]

12 pfr is pretty aggressive, he's probably 3-betting AQh and possibly even KQh.

Your check-call-check-raise is pretty strong. He may be using the save-a-bet line with AA, but honestly I just don't see many players use this. More likely, he just made a flush.

I have enough doubt that I'm certainly not folding. I'd recommend just calling though.

good luck.
eric

ps. getting 2:1, you should cap preflop.