Bet or check this river?

TiltsMcFabulous · #1 07-01-2005, 01:55 PM

Villian is a 40-4 donkey.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, 5 folds, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets ...

damaniac · #2 07-01-2005, 02:00 PM

Is he folding a better hand? Very doubtful.

So, when he calls, will it be with a worse hand more than 50% of the time (we obviously don't need to pay off a check-raise, absent a note on major weird crazy aggressiveness)? I kind of doubt it, absent again a read that he hasn't folded a river like ever.

crunchy1 · #3 07-01-2005, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet or check this river?

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you think he's calling you down with a hand weaker than AK-high?

That's your answer.

Grease · #4 07-01-2005, 02:03 PM

I check this river every time.

If he has a busted flush draw, he folds.

If he has a pair, he calls.

He folds any hands you beat, but calls with everything that beats you.

This seems like a pretty straightforward check behind here.

Anyone else think so?

crunchy1 · #5 07-01-2005, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
will it be with a worse hand more than 50% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it even needs to be that much but - your point is made.

Hybrid_11 · #6 07-01-2005, 02:14 PM

Being a donk how likely are we seeing a raise here, probably pretty slim so i think the better question is are you going to call if he bets. If yes might as well lead out. Is that thinking warped?

Grease · #7 07-01-2005, 02:19 PM

I think we call a bet because it might be a bluff with the 5 pairing and because the player is indeed a donk.

However, if he c/calls, that puts the opponent on a better hand range, most of which beat the hero, which is why I shy away from betting here.

Hybrid_11 · #8 07-01-2005, 02:22 PM

Thats true does villain bluff with more hands u beat then call a bet with more hands you beat

DBowling · #9 07-01-2005, 02:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
will it be with a worse hand more than 50% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it even needs to be that much but - your point is made.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes it does. if, when he calls you, he has a worse hand 45% and a better hand 55% of the time, you should not bet.

edit: the first question is the correct one to be asking yourself. more than likely, he wont, unless he is an uber-donk, so this would be a river check behind, standard.

akvsaq · #10 07-01-2005, 02:30 PM

What are you trying to accomplish by betting? The vast majority of players will call with anything that beats your hand. You may possibly get a call by A high hands but Idon't think a value bet will win in the long run. Unless, you know your opponent well enough that he'll fold a small pair, you should check.