Bet or check this river?
 

Villian is a 40-4 donkey.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets ...

Re: Bet or check this river?
 

Is he folding a better hand? Very doubtful.

So, when he calls, will it be with a worse hand more than 50% of the time (we obviously don't need to pay off a check-raise, absent a note on major weird crazy aggressiveness)? I kind of doubt it, absent again a read that he hasn't folded a river like ever.

Re: Bet or check this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet or check this river?

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you think he's calling you down with a hand weaker than AK-high?

That's your answer.

Re: Bet or check this river?
 

I check this river every time.

If he has a busted flush draw, he folds.

If he has a pair, he calls.

He folds any hands you beat, but calls with everything that beats you.

This seems like a pretty straightforward check behind here.

Anyone else think so?

Re: Bet or check this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
will it be with a worse hand more than 50% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it even needs to be that much but - your point is made.

Re: Bet or check this river?
 

Being a donk how likely are we seeing a raise here, probably pretty slim so i think the better question is are you going to call if he bets. If yes might as well lead out. Is that thinking warped?

Re: Bet or check this river?
 

I think we call a bet because it might be a bluff with the 5 pairing and because the player is indeed a donk.

However, if he c/calls, that puts the opponent on a better hand range, most of which beat the hero, which is why I shy away from betting here.

Re: Bet or check this river?
 

Thats true does villain bluff with more hands u beat then call a bet with more hands you beat

Re: Bet or check this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
will it be with a worse hand more than 50% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it even needs to be that much but - your point is made.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes it does. if, when he calls you, he has a worse hand 45% and a better hand 55% of the time, you should not bet.

edit: the first question is the correct one to be asking yourself. more than likely, he wont, unless he is an uber-donk, so this would be a river check behind, standard.

Re: Bet or check this river?
 

What are you trying to accomplish by betting? The vast majority of players will call with anything that beats your hand. You may possibly get a call by A high hands but Idon't think a value bet will win in the long run. Unless, you know your opponent well enough that he'll fold a small pair, you should check.