Crack the Hand for $20

[Harv72b]

First things first--you deserve to have "NIT" tattooed on your forehead for calling down with aces here. Okay, on to more important things.

It's vital to get inside the mind of the donkey. He doesn't raise preflop because something always goes wrong after the flop--if he's got AK it's all little cards and he loses to some idiot that coldcalls with 99; if he's got KK then an ace flops and he loses to some dolt who just had to call with AQ. Aces? Forget about it...someone else always flops a set, or a flush, or a straight. His only hope to end the night ahead is to beat these losers at their own game, and take every draw to the river no matter how many bets it takes. So him limping second in tells us precisely zero about his hand.

But hark, what's this? One of those aggressive dolts raises behind him, just like they always do, and this time he's had enough. He's mad as hell, and he's not going to take it anymore! He scans his screen and quickly relocates the "RAISE" button, right where he left it on the bottom right, and forcefully clicks it in a fit of self-righteous triumph. "Take THAT!", he thinks smugly as he smiles at his cunning in beating the bullies at their own game.

But...what hand would villian feel so forcefully about that he would go to such extremes?

We can eliminate the other two aces, both by sheer mathematicaly probability and by the fact that donkey is going to slowplay those babies & cleverly raise the river when the fourth diamond hits. KK is also unlikely, because donkey has long since learned that the bullies always hit their ace when he's got KK...but he still likes to raise the river just to be sure. No, this calls for a strong hand that plays well against a bully that just keeps raising and raising with crap hands, only to get lucky that he never hits his flushes.

Donkey's hand is obviously A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. There's nothing else which would muster such confidence in him, both preflop and on the flop and river. He's still smiling smugly to himself about his great triumph over the stupid bully, although he's a little sad that this time the other guy didn't raise him on the turn.

[Yort Mada]

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[naphand]

This post should be required reading for everyone - first class analysis of Donky-philosophy.

From the responses so far, you appear to be one of only very few who understand this type of player.

Sadly you are wrong, but your thinking is so right... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

NB
As for the nit thing, yes it looks bad, but there is a thought process behind this also that is entirely consistent with your understanding of villain. I will post on this shortly (before the results go up).

[newhizzle]

4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[naphand]

Why the hell would anyone simply call down with AA here?

A very good question, not unexpected. Below is my thought process, one which may well have some serious flaws but a plan is better than no plan. I cannot recall ever calling down with Aces in any spot previously. HU this seems a crime.

First I think we should refer to Harv72b's excellent post above regarding the psychology of Donkys. I agree completely with the type of hand that Donky will play this way and why he will tend not to play his best hands this way (KK/QQ etc.).

Many here have felt that Donky has a big hand, I disagree. I think Donky is "taking a stand". I think he more likely does this with a sooted hand, a sooted A moreso. I believe he slow plays his best hands, but that is just an opinion and not one based on a specific read, rather one based on players primarily met on the 6-max tables.

Donky will not LRR pairs QQ- (for the reasons Harv72b gives). AA is mathematically remote, KK is possible but is only one hand and may not be strong enough for Donky to LRR (the Ace-flop conundrum).

Capped PF with SB (LAG) cold-calling twice. At this point I have opponents on:
(i) Donky - almost anything, but probably at least 1 face card or suited cards. A suited Ace is less likely due to my holding.
(ii) LAG - what does he cold call here? Not AK or a big pair, they would be 3-bet. Any PP or reasonable suiteds like KQ/QJ/JT etc. I think there is a fair chance his hand contains a Q or two face cards. Ace unlikely but poss.

Donky will pair the flop approximately 35% of the time, ditto for LAG. I could raise and kick LAG but this would fold Donky if he has nothing, and clam him up with some weak hand. Qxx rainbow is precisely the kind of flop to steal on because is it likely to have missed everyone, esp. 3-handed.

I do not want to kick players off such a non-threatening board. If they have missed they are drawing very thin indeed. I prefer call hoping SB/Donky put me on AK, I want SB to pay another bet and really hope he has a Q and will raise so I can 3-bet.

SB folds, Turn pairs the bottom card.

A backdoor flush is possible now, HU that is not really a worry for me. I do not consider it likely opponent holds a 4. The board pairing strengthens my hand, if Donky makes 6's or Q's up on the River I will get extra bets. Note it is still 35% Donky has part of the board as no new-value cards have appeared (maybe a few % higher if we factor in the possibility of a backdoor flush).

My belief is Donky has precisely nothing most of the time here, around 65% of the time. If I raise he bullet folds or with a PP calls and calls the River. Other major pairs are now heavily discounted (AA and QQ), which leaves the only possible big hands as AQ/KK. I have already expressed my doubts as to why he would hold these.

Raising the Turn folds a bluff, which is what he has most of the time. If I call he bluffs the River too (he is betting very fast on each street). Do I get extra value raising the Turn? There are almost no hands he will 3 bet with here if I raise (except QQ/X4, and possibly KK). I believe this is a spot where calling the Turn and raising the River is a better play - I get the maximum from his bluffs AND when he has a hand he wants to SD. I call.

I know this interpretation is likely to be questioned, but I welcome any thoughtful responses to counter my logic.

River is the worst card. I see the position as follows: there is a 60% chance Donky has nothing, 5% chance he has the flush, 35% chance he has part of the Flop. The problem now is that the majority of hands that he caught part of the board with (flush, Q, 4) are ahead of me. If I raise he folds the 60% of nothing, but the real problem is will he call my bet with a hand I beat enough times to cover those times he raises with a hand I am toast to?

It is now the majority of the 40% of hands Donky shows down that beat me, IMO. I really cannot bring myself to fold to a 3-bet, because Donky has the perfect bluff board and has already shown he wants to "take me on", so I need to be good when he at least calls 66% of the time. I am no longer sure I am in that position.

Does anyone advocate a raise on the River, and how often do you think opponent calls/raises are you good?

Not sure if you didn't raise, b/c you planned to use this hand to post. However, if you did, it may be easier to define donk's hand with some postflop raising. My guess is A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[naphand]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure if you didn't raise, b/c you planned to use this hand to post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some one already mentions this, I assumed he was being ironic.

Do you really believe I am sitting at tables trying to "set up" hands to post here? Presumably my aim is to not give away any money and buy some attention? OMFG are you guys really that cynical?

I try to play my best game at the tables, hands happen the way they do. My aim is to try and select curious and difficult to read hands from among the thousands I play both for a bit of fun (stripsqueez's original "$20 to guess right" series in the HUSH forum was very popular, and people entered into them with the right spirit - we (the entire forum) expected to lose and that was part of the fun).

I have no mind to hands to post while I am playing, if something jumps out when I review my plays in PT after the session then I may post. Some weeks there will be no hands worth posting, I am sure. I picked this one as (i) it is f.hard to get it right, (ii) there are serious questions about my play and (iii) I figured that most people would think it was just "another" bad beat post. Looks like a lot of responders got bluffed out of the pot... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Sorry, it's just hard for me to imagine playing the hand like that otherwise. I definitely would have put in a raise somewhere, most likely the flop. That's why I wasn't sure if you had an alterior motive for playing the hand the way you did.

[tansoku]

Donky tried to limp with AK cause it always loses when he raises it. Damn that guy raised me, I'll show him and reraise..
Donky never bets the flop with 66, 44, QQ because you must slowplay sets. Question is did he get a piece of the flop?
A bluff or Qx here, or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I'll go with the bet to try and get that guy to fold on both streets.
Since his good hands are always getting cracked, I don't think he bets the river without a flush or boat. Maybe he checks the boat to 'teach this guy a lesson' and bets the flush out of desparation 'knowing' someone has a boat, or is being blinded by the nut flush.... Finally! got the flush!! yeah baby! Woooo!....Doh!

[SackUp]

I agree that a donkey in this situation will often be "taking a stand," but for that very reason I think not raising here is a fatal flaw.

I will start from the premise that much of the money we make from donkeys is from them making calls with improper odds and the only way for them to make an improper call is to put them to a bet. Here, the only time we ever put this donkey to a bet was preflop and it was for one bet each time after he was already committed to the pot (which he was most likely correct to stay in with a large portion of hands - though obviously his limp/raise is suspect on most hands).

With that said, us not raising this donky anywhere will make many of his bets "correct." By just letting him see a showdown with only one bet on each street you let the donkey do 3 things: 1) Let the donkey catch his lame draws cheaply; 2) Lose bets when the donk would have called your raise; and 3)Possibly bluff you off your hand if something like 4 flush or a double paired board pops up like here.

I think the major flaw in your analysis is thinking that the donkey will fold to a raise on the flop or the turn. The reason I think this is flawed is b/c you are starting from the premise that the donkey is "taking a stand." Donkeys typically don't fold when they have this attitude and usually call or raise when they have no business and thus making you lots of money in the long run. And actually will often call a raise even when not taking a stand b/c they are well - Donks.

So here is how I analyze the hand. First through the mind of the donkey and then through a 2+2er's.

Donkey

Preflop- the old Limp/reraise. Typically signifies a slow played monster but could mean a lot of things if he is nuts. I really think he could be on a large range of things if he really is "taking a stand."

Monster - this is a fairly standard move for donkeys to make especially with only one player in. He doesn't want his monster wasted by only going heads up. Monster PP are invincible in his head.

Middle PP - I think this is a VERY likely holding given the post flop play. (I know I guessed differently but that was a spurious answer and after thinking about the hand more I think we see this holding a TON of times in this situation). So why is the donk betting this way. Medium PP is a standard limp hand. But then you spice it up by raising him. He is pissed off at this and wants you to pay for raising with dirty overcards, thinking that he is way ahead right now with his pp. (And remember donkeys will not think correctly. They will justify their play by changing their mentality. So he will think his 3-bet will be chopping at you, while forgetting about the other two players around.) So he challenges you with a 3-bet trying to take control of the hand and not let your AK boss you around (again not giving you credit for a larger PP - or possibly trying to build the pot so his set will crush you)

Suited Connectors - limp standard. He will 3-bet b/c he read somewhere that middle suited connectors are the best hand to beat big broadways and thus he will clearly draw out on you. Also he heard somewhere it is good to build the pot to give you the "odds" for draws.

Rags - Many donks will play any two. The 3-bet comes with any two b/c many donks don't understand the concept of limit poker and think they can "bluff" people for one bet. This would come under the "taking a stand" approach or mabye the "LET's GAMBOOOL" approach.

Flop- Easy bet for him regardless of what he has. 1) He's either "taking a stand" and not letting you push him around by your cap; 2) thinks his PP is good b/c you have AK and didn't hit; or 3) Actually has a piece and has no intention of slowing down (remember donks often don't know how to slowplay)

Turn- Again an easy bet. 1) The board pairs and even if he has nothing he thinks he migh be able to bluff. 2) His suited cards just quadrupled in value in his mind. 3) His monster is still good. 4) A4o BIATCH!! ANY Two domination!!

River- Well I've made it this fair w/o any resistance, the board has double paired and I'm the man. (I have no problem with the donk thinking like this at all right now b/c you have gone from an agressive preflop capper to a weak tight bitch that he owns.) This is the donks easiest bet. He has a great bluff card to save his any two or suiteds that didn't hit. His monster is still looking good. And now he doesn't think there is a chance you have a Q so his PP bigger than fours is running high.

Hero

Preflop - standard

Flop- I don't mind the call so much b/c the board is not scary, you want an overcall from sb and you can make more by popping the turn (and maybe even get sb to make a bad call b/c he is "committed.") So I will play it like this very often with these players and a ragged board.

Turn- It is now HU and I think waiting till the river to raise is nuts. By not raising you (1) lose a bet that he would have called (he is trying to get us remember and even if he doesn't have a hand look at his mindset above. this is an easy bet and a good drawing card for his suited cards and an easy call for a PP) (2) letting him hit a draw for cheap. You have to charge now or suffer the consequences. A raise here will charge him when he is wrong or take down the pot right there and not let him hit some garbage draw. Letting him play for cheap loses you bets and even worse will lose you pots. Also if he 3-bets you then you can likely narrow down his range of hands and have a better means of evaluating the river.

River A double paired board sucks ass and I think after how you played this a c/c is correct. However had you raised the turn like you should have then I bet out 100% of the time and call a raise. This is too easy of a bluff for the donk and no way I'm laying this down. (this would obviously change if he 3-bet the turn in which case I'd have to do some serious reavaluation, but I doubt he is that aggressive).

Not raising the turn will costs you tons of bets and more importantly tons of pots. Take advantage of the donkey by playing tight/aggressive.

I put dudes who call down with AA on my buddy list everyday of the week. Sniffly weak/tight girls who don't extract any value from their hands are my favorite.

I think you just analyzed this hand too much and lost sight a little of where money is gained and lost.

BTW I would change my answer to a medium PP of 55-99 if I had to do it again, but I see a ton of other hands working as said above [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]