Quads argument - Page 2

#11 11-09-2005, 04:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
grunch,

Ultimately it depends. I agree with the hero's line on this hand. It boils down to the hero's reads on LP1 and LP2.

Say Hero check raises the turn, and everyone follows. That's 3 additional BB. Because of the C/R he'll should lead out on the river. Assuming that BB and LP1 call but LP2 folds, thats 2 additional BB for a total of Five...The same number of bets per the line he played. However if LP2 folds to the C/R on the turn (read dependent) then the C/R nets fewer bets by 1BB. If the read is LP2 is a calling station that'll stick around with a C/R and 1 bet on the river than ram and jam on the turn would be the way I'd play it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sarsen, a c/r is better on the turn because there's no guarantee the BB will bet the river for us again. And if others are on draws we need to charge them before they miss their draw - this has the added benefit, by the way, of getting more action from them on the river if they actually make their draw.

TheKentock · #12 11-09-2005, 04:01 PM

This is, IMHO, flawed reasoning. Yes, THIS TIME he got in a sweet check raise on the river, but that is simply not going to happen every time. If he had gotten the river checked through, or checked to LP2 (who bets, you raise, and everyone folds), you've just left Tons of money on the table.

What you're doing is comparing a typical winrate for a turn c/r to basically the optimal winrate for the turn c/c river c/r. Since they are similar in value, it is clear that the turn check raise is preferable.

#13 11-09-2005, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
grunch,

Ultimately it depends. I agree with the hero's line on this hand. It boils down to the hero's reads on LP1 and LP2.

Say Hero check raises the turn, and everyone follows. That's 3 additional BB. Because of the C/R he'll should lead out on the river. Assuming that BB and LP1 call but LP2 folds, thats 2 additional BB for a total of Five...The same number of bets per the line he played. However if LP2 folds to the C/R on the turn (read dependent) then the C/R nets fewer bets by 1BB. If the read is LP2 is a calling station that'll stick around with a C/R and 1 bet on the river than ram and jam on the turn would be the way I'd play it.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about leading the turn? Worse case we have 2.5 bets (using a fold chance of 50% for LP2, which I happen to believe would be 0% as he liked his hand enough to call the 1st BB on the river in the above action.) Then leading the river, which again gives 2.5 BB (BB & LP1 + the half of the time LP2 made it there). Agreed, that's the same as Hero's 5.

BUT, what if any of the 3 actually thought their hand was good? A broadway, river-flush (or very unlikely boat) might throw in a raise somewhere! There has to be at least *some* chance of this, making there at least *some* chance Hero gets more than 5 bets, no? I'd bet the chance of this isn't even small.

Aaron W. · #14 11-09-2005, 04:07 PM

Since you gave no read that suggests you expect *ANYONE* to bet the turn, I say you should bet out. I wouldn't want an ace, ten, or diamond to get a free look at the river when he might be willing to pay one or two bets for it.

But since you failed to bet the turn and was fortunate enough to have someone bet, you must check-raise.

How much can you expect to win? It really depends on what villains have. Giving an amount is pointless. But you can give a relative estimate for slow and fast play. By playing slowly, you certainly will not extract extra money from flush draws if they don't come in on the river, and you won't extract extra money from the straight draws if they don't come in on the river. You will not get extra action out of these hands for chcecking the turn and giving them a free card, because they are likely going to give you the same action when they make their hand regardless of the turn action (barring a raising war, in which case you still win because of all the money you make on the turn).

There seems to be no legitimate reason to let everyone off cheaply on the turn. This is a general rule about slowplaying in limit hold'em. Slowplaying on the flop can be okay, but it's hardly ever correct to slowplay on the turn. You lose too much from drawing hands because those hands miss most of the time, and you don't stand to get that much more action on the river as a result of slowplaying on the turn. Since the bet sizes are identical on both streets, there's nothing to gain.

#15 11-09-2005, 04:09 PM

Aaron, I thank you for the beer. I owe you one [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

#16 11-09-2005, 04:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
grunch,

Ultimately it depends. I agree with the hero's line on this hand. It boils down to the hero's reads on LP1 and LP2.

Say Hero check raises the turn, and everyone follows. That's 3 additional BB. Because of the C/R he'll should lead out on the river. Assuming that BB and LP1 call but LP2 folds, thats 2 additional BB for a total of Five...The same number of bets per the line he played. However if LP2 folds to the C/R on the turn (read dependent) then the C/R nets fewer bets by 1BB. If the read is LP2 is a calling station that'll stick around with a C/R and 1 bet on the river than ram and jam on the turn would be the way I'd play it.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about leading the turn? Worse case we have 2.5 bets (using a fold chance of 50% for LP2, which I happen to believe would be 0% as he liked his hand enough to call the 1st BB on the river in the above action.) Then leading the river, which again gives 2.5 BB (BB & LP1 + the half of the time LP2 made it there). Agreed, that's the same as Hero's 5.

BUT, what if any of the 3 actually thought their hand was good? A broadway, river-flush (or very unlikely boat) might throw in a raise somewhere! There has to be at least *some* chance of this, making there at least *some* chance Hero gets more than 5 bets, no? I'd bet the chance of this isn't even small.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this all hinges on the fact that we know BB is going to bet. So if anyone is going to raise they will his raise, allowing us to 3 bet anyways.

droolie · #17 11-09-2005, 04:13 PM

Lead the turn and 3-bet if you have the chance.

If they all just call your turn bet, lead the river and 3-bet if you have the chance. Since the flush draw came in someone might have it and raise and you get more money. Since the flush draw came in it is very likely no one has it and they all get too scared to bet.

If either the turn or river got checked through it would be worse than sinful. Also C/Ring screams "SLOWDOWN" or "FOLD" to anybody who has a brain.

DMBFan23 · #18 11-09-2005, 04:20 PM

I agree you don't want to slowplay, but checkraising is ok if your opponents are aggro enough.

Aaron W. · #19 11-09-2005, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree you don't want to slowplay, but checkraising is ok if your opponents are aggro enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the check-raise on the turn can be great. But there's no read given to suggest that villains are aggro (specifically, a villain in an early position), and so betting out must be taken as the default play.

queenwithatrey · #20 11-09-2005, 05:39 PM

Ram, followed by a big helping of jam.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (6.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Dingus shows T6o.