A10 in BB vs button Raise

[Bradyams]

I don't think we should bet the river. If Button is a TAG he's not calling down with a worse flush draw, or just a pair. He might have overcards, but those will hit the muck as soon as you bet the river. I think this is a very easy check/call.

[Eeegah]

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That said, I still don't see the TAG raising this river with anything we beat more than the necessary 10.8% of the time we'd need to call the raise profitably. Could anybody think of a decent range of hands?

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Damned near any two. Our betting every street isn't indicative of a pure flush draw, while the villain's actions are. If he's following through with a steal, this is a perfect time to bluff.

Even if he has the flush, he'd likely raise with any flush card here since we're not representing one; barring an unlikely straight flush there are 4 flushes we beat and 3 we don't. We're good far, far more than 10% of the time here.

[Jeoke]

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What is a TAG raising this river with?

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9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? A six? Rivered two pair? A bluff?

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A J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], quite a few hands beat me.

Also wouldnt a TAG of been more aggressive on the earlier streets if he had a pair? especially a 8?

[thesharpie]

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I don't think we should bet the river. If Button is a TAG he's not calling down with a worse flush draw, or just a pair. He might have overcards, but those will hit the muck as soon as you bet the river. I think this is a very easy check/call.

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I agree and am suprised noone else likes a river check.

[Jeoke]

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That said, I still don't see the TAG raising this river with anything we beat more than the necessary 10.8% of the time we'd need to call the raise profitably. Could anybody think of a decent range of hands?

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Damned near any two. Our betting every street isn't indicative of a pure flush draw, while the villain's actions are. If he's following through with a steal, this is a perfect time to bluff.

Even if he has the flush, he'd likely raise with any flush card here since we're not representing one; barring an unlikely straight flush there are 4 flushes we beat and 3 we don't. We're good far, far more than 10% of the time here.

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Should I really be giving 1/2 players this much credit while playing? I feel that not giving players credit is one of my biggest leaks

[arsixsixwy]

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I agree and am suprised noone else likes a river check.

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For the record, I think a check/call is a decent line, if not superior to pure Clarkmeister. I simply have not been convinced that betting and then calling a raise has any positive value.

[J. Stew]

Wouldn't this be a good time for a check call to induce a bet from a smaller heart and save a bet from a bigger heart who would reraise if we bet. Also it might induce a bluff from AK, AQ when we slow down to a four-heart board.