AQo is a good hand, but.....

[Catt]

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With this big pot, calling one more bb is not -ev.

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Upon what basis do you draw that conclusion? There's got to be some math, interpreted along reasonable hand-reading, to get you to this conclusion, right? And what sort of continued action will let you know whether your hand is good or not if you pitch the extra BB in here?

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Frankly, i don't see the difference between cold calling this flop and cold calling pre-flop.

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The two that come to mind quickly are:

1. We have seen 5 of the 7 cards anyone will see and therefore have a lot more information than we had pre-flop.

2. We have seen the betting actions of our opponents against this flop, and therefore have a lot more information than we had pre-flop.

They are actually quite different. I'm not arguing strenuously that this is a flop fold, though I think it is; but saying that there is little difference between our decisions pre-flop or on the flop is dismissing a ton of available information in a game of limited information.

[w_alloy]

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The only hand to be reasonably afraid of is AK, and there's nospecial reason to feel he has that. With this big pot, calling one more bb is not -ev. If it gets rr and capped behind then yea, of course, but it's only one more bb to make sure you don't have the best hand.

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The problem is, in a 5-way pot, people will often 3 and 4 bet the same draws they'll bet and raise with.

The problem with this logic is that because the flush draw is the only strong draw out there (besides a royal gutshot straight draw, but you wouldnt bet that), and the ace is already out (meaning the only draw utg+2 could reasonably have would be KQd or possibly KJd if he's loose), the chances they'd both be raising with a draw, while possible, is unlikely. A more likely scenario is that one has AJ-K while the other would have the draw.

Either way you dont know if you're ahead, even if it comes 4 back to you, especially if you dont have any reads. To people who say they wouldnt 3 or 4 bet AQ or AJ here, you havent played at party 2/4 enough. While its usually pretty easy to identify these people, the hero here has no reads. Also if it comes 4 back to you, you're getting much better pot odds than before without fear of getting raise on this street.

Still, I think I'd fold here because of the horrible reverse-implied odds, and if you're beat, you could be drawing dead (a Q could make one of the flop cold callers a straight).

[jt1]

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Quote:
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With this big pot, calling one more bb is not -ev.


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Upon what basis do you draw that conclusion? There's got to be some math, interpreted along reasonable hand-reading, to get you to this conclusion, right? And what sort of continued action will let you know whether your hand is good or not if you pitch the extra BB in here?


Quote:
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Frankly, i don't see the difference between cold calling this flop and cold calling pre-flop.


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The two that come to mind quickly are:

1. We have seen 5 of the 7 cards anyone will see and therefore have a lot more information than we had pre-flop.

2. We have seen the betting actions of our opponents against this flop, and therefore have a lot more information than we had pre-flop.

They are actually quite different. I'm not arguing strenuously that this is a flop fold, though I think it is; but saying that there is little difference between our decisions pre-flop or on the flop is dismissing a ton of available information in a game of limited information.


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I don't think cold calling the flop is -ev because pfr could have a holding as low as KQ and the UTG could have just two diamonds. Undoubtedly hero has a vulnerable hand that may be 2nd best, but the action isn't strong enough to conclude that hero doesn't have best hand. I think posters are more scared of being sucked out than they are that they are 2nd best on the flop.


As far as the 2nd point: Hero is in the same dilema as he was pre-. am i dominated? if hero can cold call pre than why not post? the only difference is that there are alot of CC's and one bettor. Its been my experience that the UTG bettor doesn't always indicate real strength and the cold callers are drawing.
Furthermore the pot is so much bigger on the flop.

[TStoneMBD]

3bet preflop

[alul]

Without any reads on UTG+1 and 2 I probably fold preflop and wait for the next hand.

[Catt]

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I don't think cold calling the flop is -ev because pfr could have a holding as low as KQ and the UTG could have just two diamonds. Undoubtedly hero has a vulnerable hand that may be 2nd best, but the action isn't strong enough to conclude that hero doesn't have best hand. I think posters are more scared of being sucked out than they are that they are 2nd best on the flop.

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I think I know what you are saying; but I don't think it is enough to satisfy yourself with essentially "the pot is big and there's a chance I have the best hand so the call can't be -ev." Take a look at the pre-flop action; try and put Villain(s) on a range of hands. Take a look at the flop action; try and revise Villain{s)' range of hands (the range should be getting smaller). Try and imagine what the CCer's are calling with against this board and given the pre-flop and flop action to them. Against all that guestimation, how often are we good, and if we're not good, how many outs do we have? Combine the two possibilities, weigh the risks of this getting re-raised behind you, weigh the risks of continuing with a second-best or worse hand (by the river - reverse implied odds), and the upsides to continuing (implied odds), and then figure out if it is +EV or -EV to call the flop bet. I'm not going to do all that math myself on this post -- I am just going on instinct after thinking about these variables. But contenting yourself with "big pot; possible best hand" is not enough rigor when you're trying to figure out whether the flop call is +/- EV.

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As far as the 2nd point: Hero is in the same dilemma as he was pre-. am i dominated? if hero can cold call pre than why not post? the only difference is that there are alot of CC's and one bettor. Its been my experience that the UTG bettor doesn't always indicate real strength and the cold callers are drawing.
Furthermore the pot is so much bigger on the flop.

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Again, the size of the pot is not the end all be all though it is a critical factor. If someone dropped a thousand dollars into the pot we'd not be folding. But saying that "the only difference" is that there are a lot CCers and a bettor and a raiser is not the same thing as the pre-flop situation -- everyone of those bettors / raisers / CCers have had a look at the flop when their estimates on their hands' equity value swings so dramatically (now we have 5 cards rather than 2). The fact that so many come along against this flop should give us pause about how likely our hand is going to be good after the turn and ultimately on the river.

Just feels like you're dismissing a whole crapload of information when information is the name of this game.

[JoshuaD]

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Without any reads on UTG+1 and 2 I probably fold preflop and wait for the next hand.

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You're leaving some money at the table if you do that.

[cbragado]

I'm in the minority, but I call the flop. And raise the turn if no diamond or king comes. With no read, your hand is probably best. The bettor may have a flush draw and the raiser may have a weak ace or KJ. I call with the likely best hand or (possibly second best hand w/outs) and raise the turn on a blank to take the lead and protect my hand.

[Bigdaddydvo]

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You're leaving some money at the table if you do that.

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If he is, it can't be much. I like the fold PF.

[bobbyi]

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That leaves just one holding and the always possible hidden set.

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When someone raises pf in early position and then raises again on an AK high flop, a set isn't particularly hidden.