Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...

[TwoShedsJackson]

If these are typically loose passive Party players I'd likely fold the flop too. An overpair may be best now but the Ace of clubs is the only card I'd be interested in seeing on the turn. With this many opponents and this co-ordinated a board, I don't like it.

[jakbse]

Without the Ah, fold. With BDFD I would see the turn.

[SlantNGo]

All I gotta say is... Shillx is a weak-tightie advising you NOT to fold [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

My first instinct was fold but then I saw that the 3-bet came from CO. Here, the CO is most likely drawing to 2 outs. Which takes us to the remaining 2. On a flop this coordinated, a bettor and raiser could have anything. Against a 2-pair you've got 5 outs. The only thing you're really worried about here is a set.

I like istewart's advice. Call the 3-bet, and try to raise a safe turn card. We can't know during the hand that SB will cap it. This pot is big enough that we have to continue to try to win it even if our equity dips below 25%.

Now given all that, I still think I'd fold this at the table. My thought process then would be: Even if we're ahead, we're vulnerable to way too many redraws, and the possibility of us being behind a made hand and facing draws is just too dangerous to continue in a pot even this big.

Hooray for missing the point! He said there's no way I had 9% equity. There was a way, and it happened in this hand. And with this much action at typical loose-passive tables, I generally assume my overpair with no BD draws has less than 10% equity.

[SlantNGo]

It's definitely possible that you could have 9% equity. No one here is dumb enough to question that. However, generally assuming that you have 10% equity here is fearing the worst... if anything, listen to what some of these guys have to say for their experience. Shillx has played much more poker than most of us will have played a year from now.

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Hooray for missing the point! He said there's no way I had 9% equity. There was a way, and it happened in this hand. And with this much action at typical loose-passive tables, I generally assume my overpair with no BD draws has less than 10% equity.

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Fair enough. I'll concede that far.

[davelin]

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Hooray for missing the point! He said there's no way I had 9% equity.

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No, you unfortunately missed the point. He's saying on average, there's no way you only have 10% equity here.

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There is just no way that you have 10% equity on the board in your original hand. No way.

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I don't consider "no way" emphasized through repetition to be synonymous with "on average". Perhaps he's saying much more often than not, but certainly not "on average".

[Marquis]

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There is just no way that you have 10% equity on the board in your original hand. No way.

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I don't consider "no way" emphasized through repetition to be synonymous with "on average". Perhaps he's saying much more often than not, but certainly not "on average".

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Since you don't know what your opponents hold, your equity is calculated vs. hand ranges rather than specific hands. By doing this, your equity is an average versus all possible combinations of your opponents possible hands, by definition. When Shill says "no way", he means there's no way your equity is 9% if it is calculated without knowing your opponents exact holdings, and that's the way it should be calculated.

Folding the flop is bad because it doesn't consider what all the actions mean in front of you.

SBs bet can mean a decent made hand that beats you or it can mean a made hand that you beat or it can be a draw. So you can't fold to him.

UTGs raise usually means a hand that needs protection that you almost always have beaten. You can't fold to that.

The 2 cold calls can mean that they are also drawing but may also mean they are slowplaying a big hand.

COs bet means he's an idiot and you can't fold to that.

I'd cap it and see how SB likes his hand for 3 bets, and because the cold callers will make very curious folds here all too often.

If it's two bets to me on the turn, I'll strongly consider folding.