QQ OOP Facing an EP reraise, monotone flop of your suit

[Phoenix1010]

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Checkraise....

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Explanation?

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People flop the flush 5% of the time IE rare. So your hand is probably still good and you have redraws to the queen. So check here and triple his bet. . So assuming he bets 7 make it 20. If he comes over the top you use your feel, as pot odds warrent a call but if he is a rock i toss it ...

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Look again at stack sizes-- are you really putting in $20 then folding for $11 more?

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No but putting in 20 will win the pot at least 60% or more of the time. Therefore making it a winning play...

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I'm not sure where you're getting this figure from. His most likely hands are AA and KK. Half of those times he will have a draw to the nuts or second nuts. It's remotely possible that he has top set. It's also remotely possible that he just has ace high, but even then he'll often have a draw to the nuts or second nuts. Even if he's so paranoid that he'll put me on a made flush or set every time I CR, he's still drawing strong so often that there's no way he folds anywhere close to 60% of the time.

I believe check-raising is good here. If he checks behind you, and the turn is a non-heart Ace or King, be prepared to check/fold. If he three-bets your check-raise, then your gonna need to lay it down because JJ, KK, AA could be in the villian's range.

Really, I think this is an easy check/fold. What is he reraising (almost minireraising) you with preflop? I think over 80% of the time it's KK or AA. Going for a c/r hoping to get a SSNL player to fold an overpair is suicide. And if he reraised you with JJ or 1010, you're screwed. He may have AK with a heart, but then he has two overs, a flush draw, and a gut shot. I see no reason to go for the c/r here, and frankly I can't believe people are suggesting it.

If you feel like you really want to throw away more money on this hand, then lead out the flop for $8 and fold to a raise. But I hate that too, b/c most people will simply call with AA or KK here. And he has position on you.

Check/fold. Really. Save yourself some money. And the quicker you fold, the quicker you can get to the next hand.

How about a blocking bet here, say around 1/2 the pot. Since he is tight:
1.) Wouldn't this slow him down if is scared.
2.) But he'd come over the top if he is not scared.
Any thoughts?

[BobboFitos]

check fold

[afreeman]

What about a small probe bet of 40% of the pot or so with the intent to call a raise if offered appropriate odds?

Queens probably aren't good here, but there is a nice flush draw out there and only 2 cards of villain's possible 10-12 holdings or so that beat it. Basically, just ignore the queens and play this as a flush draw hand.

Of course, the counter-argument is that an aggressive villain will immediately put in a large flop raise, driving off hero's flush draw. But maybe not...

We can reasonably put villain on a big pair, so he may also fear the flush and perceive a small flop opener as an attempt to trap him with an underbet.

Either way, I think this hand has too much equity to just give up on it immediately. After running this thru pokerstove with villain holding AA-JJ, AKs-AQs and AKo, I found that hero is almost dead even against villain:

Hand 1: 49.6881% [00.49 00.01] {QsQh}
Hand 2: 50.3119% [00.49 00.01] {AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo}

More importantly, there just isn't enough information available at this point to significantly narrow down villain's holdings any further; any of these hands would be worth a preflop re-raise to this villain.

I'm not generally a fan of "raising to see where you're at" or "betting to gain information", but I think this is one of those situations where it might make some sense.

Thoughts?

I posted a veryyy similar hand about a week ago, interesting. After analysing people's replies to that...I'd make a bet on the flop, and if he calls, play very cautious after that, borderline weak.

Simply put, I think you're dominated by a fair amount of hands that'll call you down. JJ, TT, KK, AA, AK,, plus KK, AA, or AK can have the heart, so you can't really think of it as a flush draw.

[Phoenix1010]

You're overusing Pokerstove. It doesn't allow you to weight his most likely holdings so it sckews the results. AK is not nearly as likely as KK, and AQ is nearly non existent. Betting small is throwing money away since he'll raise me almost every time and calling a raise here is crazy no matter what odds I get.

Thanks to Bobbo for chiming in and for the eerily similar link.