A9s six players see flop.

[Interested]

Thank you Nick and Davelin for your replying. You force me to think about things I never thought before.

Hmm, I just ran the simulation in Turbo Texas Holdem and got strange results. There were 2 simulations. In both we were on the button, all cards from example, turn, 4 opponents, all check to us. First one we bet and call all raises/second one we check for free card. Results 3966/2946.

Just what do you think?

Thank you again

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you Nick and Davelin for your replying. You force me to think about things I never thought before.

Hmm, I just ran the simulation in Turbo Texas Holdem and got strange results. There were 2 simulations. In both we were on the button, all cards from example, turn, 4 opponents, all check to us. First one we bet and call all raises/second one we check for free card. Results 3966/2946.

Just what do you think?

Thank you again

[/ QUOTE ]

What do these results mean...$ won?

[Interested]

Yes this is net $won. Limit simulation was $2/$4. Loose table.

[toss]

Thats a big difference in $$ won.

[Hojglad]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a big difference in $$ won.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep, and I'd bet it's because of the error in this calculation:

[ QUOTE ]
[(9/46)*3]+[(37/46)*-1] = -0.22
[times I make a flush on river]+[times I don't]

I lose .22 BB everytime I bet the turn and only get 3 callers. This is what meant.

[/ QUOTE ]
The poster of this only gives 3 big bets of profit to the hero when he hits his flush. Is no one else EVER on a flush draw here? I'd venture to guess that the hero will make much more than 3 bets when he hits his flush via implied odds. He will probably get a minimum of 6 (due to three callers calling twice, turn and river) and possibly much more due to someone in early position hitting their king or queen high flush and betting it.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
The poster of this only gives 3 big bets of profit to the hero when he hits his flush. Is no one else EVER on a flush draw here? I'd venture to guess that the hero will make much more than 3 bets when he hits his flush via implied odds. He will probably get a minimum of 6 (due to three callers calling twice, turn and river) and possibly much more due to someone in early position hitting their king or queen high flush and betting it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your implied odds is not effected by the turn bet. If you check the turn and hit your flush at the same time someone else does (or hit some other 2nd hand) your implied odds will be the same.

EDIT: The calculation is correct.

[Ian M.]

Personally I think this is a clear bet on the turn. You're investing a tiny % of the pot to possibly increase your chance to win it greatly. The bet could cause AK,AQ or AT to fold, and even cause some weak tight players to make a big mistake and fold a hand like JT fearing you have an overpair (the Hero's actions so far have been consistent with the play of AA-JJ). Also if you hit your flush, you may get some extra bets because players may not believe you would bet in that spot with the nut flush draw.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I think this is a clear bet on the turn. You're investing a tiny % of the pot to possibly increase your chance to win it greatly. The bet could cause AK,AQ or AT to fold, and even cause some weak tight players to make a big mistake and fold a hand like JT fearing you have an overpair (the Hero's actions so far have been consistent with the play of AA-JJ). Also if you hit your flush, you may get some extra bets because players may not believe you would bet in that spot with the nut flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're investing a little less than 10% of the pot when you make the turn bet. Is your increase in equity really going to go up by that much?

In my experience you're more likely to get more action on the river by checking than betting. You may get top pair to bet or even a bluff on the river by showing "weakness" on the turn.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I think this is a clear bet on the turn. You're investing a tiny % of the pot to possibly increase your chance to win it greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not true:

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet the turn for 2 reasons. 1. To fold any unpaired Ax hands that might still be around. 2. I thought it was +ev if I got 3 callers, but I realised that was wrong after looking over the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
Both these reasons are wrong.

1. Even if a bet fold a better ace every time it would be -EV. By folding an A you're buying 2 outs which will only come in 4% of the time. You're buying 4% of the pot. 0.04*11.25= 0.45
You're investing one BB to win at best 0.45BB (in reality less than 0.2BB since you'll not often fold a better ace here).

2. As you said, this is just plain wrong.

Take the turn free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
The bet could cause AK,AQ or AT to fold, and even cause some weak tight players to make a big mistake and fold a hand like JT fearing you have an overpair (the Hero's actions so far have been consistent with the play of AA-JJ).

[/ QUOTE ]
A bet will very rarely fold a better hand. And closse to never make you win this hand UI.

[ QUOTE ]
Also if you hit your flush, you may get some extra bets because players may not believe you would bet in that spot with the nut flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
On the other hand checking might make your opponents bet into you when you hit your flush making you able to raise.

[Nick Royale]

Can't believe we're still posting in this thread...