How to play this nut flush draw

[Leo Bello]

SB 1 + BB 2, five limpers 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2, SB completes +1 total until now. 14. BB raises to 10. five people enter so 48 more. Until now 48 + 14 = 62.
On flop 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 50 = 62 +110 = 172... you are right, the pot has 172 instead of 173...

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
SB 1 + BB 2, five limpers 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2, SB completes +1 total until now. 14. BB raises to 10. five people enter so 48 more. Until now 48 + 14 = 62.
On flop 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 50 = 62 +110 = 172... you are right, the pot has 172 instead of 173...

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't trying to pick nits but you also wrote there was yet another player behind you left to act after the tight players raise although he was also likely to fold. This information does not make the numbers add up correctly which is why I asked for clarification.

EDITED BELOW:

Heck, you aren't even the initial poster!! Why am I listening to you? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
SB 1 + BB 2, five limpers 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2, SB completes +1 total until now. 14. BB raises to 10. five people enter so 48 more. Until now 48 + 14 = 62.
On flop 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 50 = 62 +110 = 172... you are right, the pot has 172 instead of 173...

[/ QUOTE ]
thanks Leo for the correction. 172 is correct as is your account of action.

to finish the account...

Well I made the donkey move. I went all in over the top. I percieved that because of his tightness that if I went all in on the flop he might of folded, perhaps 40% of the time expecting a set. He even berated himself saying that I had a set. After much deliberation he called.

I've been beating myself up for this move ever since I did it and since no one has offered this as a possibe move, I guess I'm right for beating myself up, lol.

thanks guys for the advice.

Did he actually turn over that AQ you put him on?

If you really put him on AQ the only hands beating him were exactly AA, QQ and 88 which can only be dealt 18 ways. No matter what I would call that all in bet in his position holding top two pair. Even with the diamond draw on board he's a favorite to win with his two pair and the pot odds more than justify his call considering the small number of hands that were beating him at the time. It had to be fairly obvious that you weren't holding either QQ or AA since there were so many PF limpers and you did nothing to raise people off it. If he was holding AQ he knew you were beat or, at the worst, dead even.

Cyber, yes he turned the AQ as I knew. I read this guy like a book, which is why i put the move on him. He won't invest any money in a pot unless he has a lock on it, and won't put over 50 in a pot unless he has the nutz. that's why i did the move. He made the right call, and i made a poor play. he probably wouldn't put me on QQ or AA very likely as that would be the case A or Q. he put me on 88 and was convinced i had it and asked to see the snowmen when he called.

it was the wrong move on my part for good reasons. If I was to do the play over again I'd call - check/fold(if no diamond) raise(if diamond) on the riv.

If you *knew he had AQ, and you still put him all in, no offense, but that is a dumb move...

Do you really expect your opponent to fold top 2 pair (with an ace), with no str8 or flush showing on the board?

I really dont see how this hand is even a hard decision... Call on the flop, you are getting great odds considering you are 3-1, and u called with garbage preflop facing a raise..

You got yourself into this situation preflop, you hit an *Ideal flop postflop... What is the problem with calling here?

Can someone comment on this?

1. Is this really only a good calling situation because the opponent is tight since the implied odds are weak? If there is a big raise - say all in - on a bad turn, then it's -EV to call:
The +EV of calling here is theoretically 1/3*223-50=24
And the -EV of calling an all-in on the turn with after no diamond comes up would be (8/44*489-133)*2/3=-30

2. Since calling 'represents' a drawing hand, and JT with the two-way gutshot straight draw is a solid drawing hand in this situation, would it be good play to semi-bluff on any 9 or King that comes up on the turn? (Or, for the more agressive bluffer the Jack or Ten as well?)

The problem with just calling on the flop in your situation is that on the turn he may just put you all-in. If you didn’t catch the flush, this will be a tough decision. This being the case, you should consider playing the hand all-in if you are considering just calling the $50 raise to begin with. An alternate play would be to raise him on the flop to see if you couldn’t possibly slow him down. Of course the problem with that is that you are pretty much all-in if you raise him to $100.

This is a classic problem that a lot of people get trapped in. They call some big bet/raise on the flop trying to catch a draw. They think that they have pot odds to make the call only to miss on the turn and get put all-in or stuck calling a humongous bet to see the river card. You should always consider the possibility of missing your draw on the turn and what the “aggressor” in the hand is going to do when that happens. This is why it’s not a bad play since you have position on him to try and come over the top to slow him down. By coming over the top and putting him on the defense you become the aggressor and have a better chance of getting the river card for free. But in your particular situation I don’t think that it would work because of you being so short stacked after you raise on the flop.

Also as you know playing hands like K4s in a raised pot will lead to some tough calls again in the future. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Brian Dennis
sevenduce@gmail.com

[WhiteWolf]

Well, if your estimate that he would fold 40% of the time to your push was correct, then your play was actually a good move. By my calculations, the semibluff push is +EV all the way down to about a 15% chance that he folds. The only question is if your folding probablity estimate was correct, and that is of course highly read-dependent and impossible to accurately specify.